Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union
We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and monthly data on EU countries covering the 1962-2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in several countries is negative. Second, in half of the cases there is no significant relationship between inflation uncertainty and output growth performance. Third, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Nevertheless, considerable evidence for the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis is obtained. Our conclusions are based on adopting both a structural and a reduced-form bivariate GARCH model. Finally, we also find statistically significant evidence of regime switching for both inflation and output growth volatility throughout the sample.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004.
"The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
- Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001.
"Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth,"
0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
- Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000.
"The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
745, The University of Melbourne.
- Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2002. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 683-692, January.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
- Coulson, N. Edward & Robins, Russell P., 1985. "Aggregate economic activity and the variance of inflation : Another look," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 71-75.
- Devereux, Michael, 1989. "A Positive Theory of Inflation and Inflation Variance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 105-16, January.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007.
"Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7," Working Papers 0064, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-28, October.
- Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
- Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Dennis W. Jansen, 1989. "Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 43-54.
- Stilianos Fountas & Alexandra Ioannidis & Menelaos Karanasos, 2004.
"Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and a common European Monetary Policy,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
30, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- S. Fountas & A. Ioannidis & M. Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and a Common European Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 221-242, 03.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Alexandra,Ioannidid, 2001. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and a Common European Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0054, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261 Elsevier.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Woodford, Michael, 1986.
"Learning to Believe in Sunspots,"
86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:6:p:972-986. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.