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Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries

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  • Don Bredin
  • John Elder
  • Stilianos Fountas

Abstract

We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and quarterly data for five Asian countries to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. We conclude the following. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related negatively to the average growth rate. Secondly, contrary to expectations, inflation uncertainty in most cases does not harm the output growth performance of an economy. Thirdly, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. Consistent results are found using the VAR-GARCH-M approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between inflation and output growth using impulse response functions. This evidence implies that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance, i.e. raise output growth and reduce inflation. Our empirical results highlight important differences with those for industrialized countries. Copyright © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in Asian Countries ," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-229, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:2:p:215-229
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    1. repec:rej:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:61:p:3-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:04:n:s0217590813500306 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    4. Komain Jiranyakul & Timothy P. Opiela, 2011. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 291-307, September.
    5. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1-17.
    6. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 81-92.
    7. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2017. "Volatility and Growth: A not so straightforward relationship," Working Paper series 17-12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.

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