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Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?

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  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah
  • Siew-Voon Soon

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and their uncertainties in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach - – The modeling approach allows for structural breaks to avoid the masking of specific impacts. Findings - – Based on the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model, the paper found strong evidence favoring a positive effect of a change in the inflation uncertainty as predicted by the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. In addition, inflation (inflation uncertainty) has direct (indirect) negative effect on the output growth. The results are consistent with the Taylor effect – increases in inflation uncertainty decreases output uncertainty. The analysis also reveals that economic uncertainty lowers the growth rate of output, complying with Bernanke's idea. Originality/value - – The present study suggests that extra efforts are required to locate the breaks in the variance in order to draw concrete evidence on link between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:41:y:2014:i:3:p:370-386
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-05-2012-0073
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    Cited by:

    1. Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2019. "Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Transmissions between Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(3), pages 281-313, December.
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    3. Shah, Said Zamin & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Hook, Law Siong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2017. "Nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance in a time-varying asymmetric framework: Implications for monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-93.
    4. Said Zamin Shah & Said Zamin Shah & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Law Siong Hook, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 377-386.
    5. Md. Qamruzzaman & Ananda Bardhan & Summatun Nasya, 2020. "Nexus between Remittance, Nonperforming Loan, Money Supply, and Financial Volatility: An Application of ARDL," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 11-29.
    6. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.

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