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Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks

Author

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  • Bradley T. Ewing
  • Farooq Malik

Abstract

Policy makers and financial market participants are interested in knowing how shocks affect the volatility of oil prices over time. We accurately compute the volatility persistence by incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks into a GARCH model. Contrary to previous findings, we find that oil shocks dissipate very quickly but have a strong initial impact. Understanding this behavior is not only important for derivative valuation and hedging decisions but for broader financial markets and the overall economy, for which there are significant consequences. Copyright (c) 2010, The Eastern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik, 2010. "Estimating Volatility Persistence in Oil Prices Under Structural Breaks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1023, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:45:y:2010:i:4:p:1011-1023
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    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
    2. Geoffrey Ngene & Charles Lambert & Ali Darrat, 2015. "Testing Long Memory in the Presence of Structural Breaks: An Application to Regional and National Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 465-483, May.
    3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
    4. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    5. Dennis Alvaro & Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2017. "Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 71-103, February.
    6. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2016. "Global financial crisis and spillover effects among the U.S. and BRICS stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-276.
    7. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Sudden changes in crude oil price volatility: an application of extreme value volatility estimator," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3/4), pages 215-234.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2016. "A time series analysis of oil production, rig count and crude oil price: Evidence from six U.S. oil producing regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 339-349.
    9. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.
    10. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Volatility transmission between gold and oil futures under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 113-121.
    11. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:227-233 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Instabilities in the relationships and hedging strategies between crude oil and US stock markets: Do long memory and asymmetry matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 354-366.
    13. Korkmaz, Turhan & Çevik, Emrah İ. & Atukeren, Erdal, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers among CIVETS stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 230-252.
    14. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Parameter instability, stochastic volatility and estimation based on simulated likelihood: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 388-408.
    15. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    16. Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2013. "Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?," Memorandum 14/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    17. Sinem Derindere KOSEOGLU & Emrah Ismail CEVIK, 2013. "Testing for Causality in Mean and Variance between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Application to the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 65-86, March.
    18. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2016. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-23.
    19. Okur, Mustafa & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2013. "Testing intraday volatility spillovers in Turkish capital markets: evidence from ISE," MPRA Paper 71477, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    20. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
    21. Fagiani, Riccardo & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2014. "The role of regulatory uncertainty in certificate markets: A case study of the Swedish/Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 608-618.
    22. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-549 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2014. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: what does the data say for Malaysia?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 370-386, May.
    24. Block, Alexander Souza & Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Schlender, Sérgio Guilherme & Coronel, Daniel Arruda, 2015. "Investigating dynamic conditional correlation between crude oil and fuels in non-linear framework: The financial and economic role of structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 23-32.
    25. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Testing the covariance stationarity of CEE stocks," MPRA Paper 43432, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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