IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Growth and volatility reconsidered: reconciling opposite views

  • Bisio, Laura
  • Ventura, Luigi

Many contributions in the recent literature have investigated over the relationship between growth and its volatility, without getting a clear and unambiguous answer. Besides reassessing the well-known effect of output volatility on growth as benchmark analysis, this study aims at looking into the "black box" of the business cycle volatility by disentangling the impacts of volatility of GDP major components - i.e. private consumption, private investment and government expenditure - on growth, simultaneously considered. Our empirical analysis unveils a remarkably robust and strong negative correlation of consumption volatility with mean growth, and a positive one with volatility of investment and of public expenditure. If these findings shed some additional light on the (still controversial) relationship between economic fluctuations and growth, they also make it possible to compare the relative impact of each component, with possibly relevant policy implications. Importantly, this might reconcile opposite views about the issue, in that different empirical results might originate from the relative importance across empirical studies of the various components of volatility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35937/1/MPRA_paper_35937.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35937.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35937
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
  2. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  3. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  5. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010. "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010," NBER Working Papers 15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. d'Autume, Antoine, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle : by Gilles Saint-Paul," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 884-887, May.
  7. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1992. "The reincarnation of Keynesian economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 559-565, April.
  8. Davide Furceri, 2010. "Long-run growth and volatility: which source really matters?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(15), pages 1865-1874.
  9. King, Mervyn, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle : by Gilles Saint-Paul," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 887-890, May.
  10. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 861-883, May.
  11. Matthew Rafferty, 2005. "The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long-Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 582-591, January.
  12. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
  13. Jean Imbs, 2007. "Growth and Volatility," Post-Print hal-00612554, HAL.
  14. Robert Lensink & Hong Bo & Elmer Sterken, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 379-396, September.
  15. repec:oup:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:2:p:277-97 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5629, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  18. Edwards Jeffrey A, 2007. "Dynamics of the Cross-Country Growth/Volatility Relationship," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, June.
  19. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/GMM estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 667, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Sep 2007.
  20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," NBER Working Papers 3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-85, January.
  22. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  23. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  24. Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
  25. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September.
  26. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Stabilization Policy, Learning by Doing, and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  28. Giovanni S.F. Bruno, 2005. "XTLSDVC: Stata module to estimate bias corrected LSDV dynamic panel data models," Statistical Software Components S450101, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 08 Sep 2005.
  29. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  30. Judson, Ruth & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-38, April.
  31. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  32. Paul Gaggl & Sandra Steindl, 2007. "Business Cycles and Growth: A Survey," WIFO Working Papers 308, WIFO.
  33. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Scholarly Articles 3451303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  34. Bean, Charles R., 1990. "Endogenous growth and the procyclical behaviour of productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 355-363, May.
  35. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  36. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  37. Harris, M.N. & Matyas, L., 1996. "A Comparative Analysis of Different Estimatiors for Dynamic Panel data Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.