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Long-run growth and volatility: which source really matters?

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  • Davide Furceri

Abstract

The aim of the article is to analyse the relationship between long-run growth and business cycle volatility. In particular, the main purpose of this article is to identify which source of volatility is most detrimental to growth. Using cross-country data from 1970 to 2000, and several indicators of volatility (such as inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, output and investment volatility) this article shows that although, all these measures of volatility are remarkably harmful for growth, business cycle investment volatility is the main source that hampers long-run growth. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycle, and to different sub-samples of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri, 2010. "Long-run growth and volatility: which source really matters?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(15), pages 1865-1874.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:15:p:1865-1874
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701749050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 37, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Aug 1997.
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    Cited by:

    1. John W. Dawson, 2015. "The Empirical Volatility-Growth Relationship: Is Economic Freedom the Missing Link?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 30(Summer 20), pages 61-82.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Davide Furceri & Ernesto Crivelli & Mr. Joël Toujas-Bernate, 2012. "Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2012/218, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Arratibel, Olga & Martin, Reiner & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?," Working Paper Series 929, European Central Bank.
    5. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "Financial Crises: Past Lessons and Policy Implications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 668, OECD Publishing.
    6. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2013. "Growth, Deficits and Uncertainty: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper series 53_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2013. "Economic growth and crime: does uncertainty matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 420-427, March.
    8. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    9. Bisio, Laura & Ventura, Luigi, 2012. "Growth and volatility reconsidered: reconciling opposite views," MPRA Paper 35937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sarra Ben Slimane, 2015. "The Relationship between Growth and Employment Intensity: Evidence for Developing Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 680-692, April.
    11. Syed Ammad & Sabihuddin Butt & Shaista Alam, 2012. "Fiscal Responsiveness, Persistence and Discretion: A Case Study of Pakistan," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 227-244, September.
    12. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Employment-output elasticities determinants: is there difference between Francophone and Anglophone countries from AMEE ?," MPRA Paper 98966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2010. "Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 438(1), pages 19-42.
    14. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    15. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2013. "Growth, deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 380-392.
    16. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Employment-output elasticities determinants: case of cross-section from AMEE," MPRA Paper 98961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    18. repec:apl:wpaper:14-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michael Jetter, 2013. "Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10944, Universidad EAFIT.
    20. Abdelaaziz Aït Ali & Yassine Msadfa, 2017. "Manufacturing Employment Elasticity and Its Drivers in Developing and Emerging Countries : Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," Research papers & Policy papers 1709, Policy Center for the New South.
    21. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.

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