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Economic Growth and Crime: Does Uncertainty Matter?

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  • Eleftherios Goulas

    () (Department of Economics, University of Patras, Greece)

  • Athina Zervoyianni

    () (Department of Economics, University of Patras, Greece)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the crime literature by exploring how the crime-uncertainty interaction impacts on economic growth. Using a panel of 25 countries over the period 1991-2007, we find evidence suggesting that increased crime has an asymmetric effect on growth depending on the future prospects of the economy as reflected in the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty. In particular, our results indicate that higher-than-average macroeconomic uncertainty enhances the adverse impact of crime on growth implying that a 10% increase in the crime rate can reduce annual per-capita GDP-growth by between 0.49 and 0.62 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2012. "Economic Growth and Crime: Does Uncertainty Matter?," Working Paper series 51_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:51_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Crimen y crecimiento económico
      by ? in Tiempo Económico on 2012-11-03 13:32:39

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Concha Verdugo Yepes & Peter L. Pedroni & Xingwei Hu, 2015. "Crime and the Economy in Mexican States; Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)," IMF Working Papers 15/121, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:bla:presci:v:96:y:2017:i:3:p:477-494 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2013. "The Growth-Crime Relationship: Are There any Asymmetries?," Working Paper series 54_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Oliviero A. Carboni & Claudio Detotto, 2016. "The economic consequences of crime in Italy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 122-140, January.
    5. Ioannis Laliotis, 2016. "Crime and unemployment in Greece: Evidence before and during the crisis," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 10-16.
    6. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2015. "Economic growth and crime: Is there an asymmetric relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 286-295.
    7. repec:ere:journl:v:xxxvi:y:2017:i:1:p:25-58 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; crime; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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