IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Growth, Deficits and Uncertainty in a Panel of 28 Countries

  • Eleftherios Goulas


    (Department of Economics, University of Patras, Greece)

  • Athina Zervoyianni


    (Department of Economics, University of Patras, Greece)

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 28 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the future prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 52_12.

in new window

Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:52_12
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Patara, 3, 47921 Rimini (RN)
Phone: +390541434142
Fax: +39054155431
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ghosh, Sugata & Mourmouras, Iannis A., 2004. "Endogenous growth, welfare and budgetary regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 623-635, December.
  2. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
  3. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
  4. Fölster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2000. "Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 391, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Éva Katalin Polgár & Andrei Zlate, 2008. "Real convergence and the determinants of growth in EU candidate and potential candidate countries - a panel data approach," Occasional Paper Series 86, European Central Bank.
  6. Christiansen, Lone & Schindler, Martin & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "Growth and structural reforms: A new assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-356.
  7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  8. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1997. "Fiscal Policy In A Growing Economy With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 615-639, September.
  9. Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, 07.
  10. Futagami, Koichi & Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2008. "Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Paths," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 445-462, September.
  11. Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Working Papers 0018, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  12. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2008. "Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1407-1422, December.
  13. Schiantarelli, Fabio & Perotti, Roberto & Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4685103, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 645-61, October.
  15. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Baldacci, Emanuele & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2005. "Fiscal policy, expenditure composition, and growth in low-income countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 441-463, April.
  16. Hoeffler, Anke E, 2002. " The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 135-58, May.
  17. Walter H. Fisher & Christian Keuschnigg, 2002. "Public Policy for Efficient Education," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 361-390, November.
  18. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  19. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. António Afonso & Juan González Alegre, 2007. "Economic Growth and Budgetary Components: a Panel Assessment for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/29, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  21. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1999. "GMM estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," IFS Working Papers W99/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  22. repec:hrv:faseco:3353756 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 09/160, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2001. "The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries," Post-Print halshs-00168383, HAL.
  25. Alfred Greiner & Uwe Köller & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Debt sustainability in the European Monetary Union: Theory and empirical evidence for selected countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 194-218, April.
  26. Mihaela Pintea & Stephen Turnovsky, 2006. "Congestion and Fiscal Policy in a Two-Sector Economy with Public Capital: A Quantitative Assessment," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 177-209, September.
  27. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, 09.
  28. Steven Yamarik, 2011. "Human capital and state-level economic growth: what is the contribution of schooling?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 195-211, August.
  29. Shuanglin Lin, 2000. "Government Debt and Economic Growth in an Overlapping Generations Model," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 754-763, January.
  30. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  31. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1996. "Optimal tax, debt, and expenditure policies in a growing economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 21-44, April.
  32. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  33. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold effects in monetary and fiscal policies in a growth model: Assessing the importance of the financial system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 304-319, June.
  34. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  35. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
  36. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  37. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
  38. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
  39. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2000. "Endogenous Growth, Government Debt and Budgetary Regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 363-384, July.
  40. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Strauch, Rolf, 2008. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 172-191, March.
  41. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-25, December.
  42. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
  43. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Economides, George & Kammas, Pantelis, 2007. "Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 885-902, December.
  44. David Alan Aschauer, 2000. "Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 343-363.
  45. William F. Blankenau & Nicole B. Simpson & Marc Tomljanovich, 2007. "Public Education Expenditures, Taxation, and Growth: Linking Data to Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 393-397, May.
  46. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
  47. Alfonso Arpaia & Alessandro Turrini, 2008. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 300, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  48. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B, 1992. "Public versus Private Investment in Human Capital Endogenous Growth and Income Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 818-34, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:52_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dimitrios Vortelinos)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.