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Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos. (Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a spatial-Bayesian autoregressive vector approach)

Listed author(s):
  • Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado

    ()

    (Universidad de Colima, Villa de Álvarez, Colima. México.)

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    Ante los recientes episodios de intensificación en la actividad delictiva en México, llama la atención la escasez de estudios que analizan su relación con las fluctuaciones en la tasa de desempleo. El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en evaluar el impacto que tendría un desajuste que incremente sorpresivamente la tasa de desempleo en los estados de la frontera norte, sobre la actividad criminal, en particular respecto del número de robos. Con este fin, se aplica un VAR bayesiano espacial de acuerdo con la propuesta de LeSage y Cashell (2015). Los resultados sugieren que la respuesta del número de robos es heterogénea en los estados de la frontera norte de México. Por ejemplo: en algunos estados como Chihuahua, el número de robos parece responder de forma transitoria; en tanto que en Tamaulipas, este tipo de delito reacciona en menor medida a las fluctuaciones en su tasa de desempleo y la de sus estados vecinos.

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    File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxxvi/1/2_Victor_Torres.pdf
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    Article provided by Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia in its journal Ensayos Revista de Economia.

    Volume (Year): XXXVI (2017)
    Issue (Month): 1 (May)
    Pages: 25-58

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    Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxvi:y:2017:i:1:p:25-58
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