Crime Rates Versus Labor Market Conditions; Theory and Time-Series Evidence
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of labor market conditions, represented by male civilian unemployment rates, on seven major categories of crime. We propose a theoretical model from which the positive macro relationship between the unemployment rate and the crime rate is explicitly derived. The solution of the proposed model shows the concurrent counter-cyclical movements of the unemployment and crime rates, which is found to be consistent with the U.S. time series data from the first quarter of 1970 to the fourth quarter of 1983. Thus, we propose a view that an increase in the unemployment rate triggers a subsequent increase in the crime rate. Further, we find that the unemployment rate is statistically exogenous in the VAR model, which indicates a fact that there lie the economic forces and motivations behind the positive relationship between the unemployment rate and the crime rate.
|Date of creation:||Aug 1991|
|Publication status:||published in Economic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, no. 3, September 1993,pp. 250-262|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.