IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Crime, Fertility, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Vea Papadopoulou

This paper studies the link between crime and fertility and the way by which they jointly impact on economic growth. In a three-period overlapping generations model, where health status in adulthood depends on health in childhood, adult agents allocate their time to work, leisure, child rearing and criminal activities. An autonomous increase in the probability o¤enders face in escaping apprehension, increases both crime and fertility non-monotonically, giving rise to an ambiguous e¤ect on growth. A cross-country empirical examination, based on data that span four decades, supports the non-linear e¤ects on both crime and fertility. At the same time, it reveals a negative effect on output growth.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 163.

in new window

Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:163
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bruno L. S. Falcao & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2007. "The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor," NBER Working Papers 12838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alberto Palloni & Hantamala Rafalimanana, 1999. "The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: new evidence from latin america," Demography, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 41-58, February.
  3. David M. Cutler & Angus S. Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Working Papers id:359, eSocialSciences.
  4. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. N Powdthavee & A Vignoles, 2008. "Mental Health of Parents and Life Satisfaction of Children: A Within-Family Analysis of Intergenerational Transmission of Well-Being," Discussion Papers 08/20, Department of Economics, University of York.
  6. Todd D. Kendall & Robert Tamura, 2010. "Unmarried Fertility, Crime, and Social Stigma," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 185-221, 02.
  7. Harbaugh, William T. & Mocan, Naci & Visser, Michael S., 2011. "Theft and Deterrence," IZA Discussion Papers 5813, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2008. "What Do Economists Know About Crime?," NBER Working Papers 13759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
  11. Peri Giovanni, 2004. "Socio-Cultural Variables and Economic Success: Evidence from Italian Provinces 1951-1991," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, September.
  12. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2008. "Do immigrants cause crime?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00586864, HAL.
  13. Kelaher, Richard & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2011. "Crime and Punishment Revisited," MPRA Paper 28213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2008. "Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 411-424, 08.
  15. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
  16. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Antonio Merlo & Peter Rupert, 2000. "What accounts for the decline in crime?," Working Paper 0008, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Engelhardt, Bryan & Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rupert, Peter, 2008. "Crime and the labor market: A search model with optimal contracts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 1876-1891, October.
  18. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  19. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. N Bose & J A Holman & K C Neanidis, 2005. "The Optimal Public Expenditure Financing Policy: Does the Level of Economic Development Matter?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 57, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  21. Luis Angeles, 2008. "Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Working Papers 2008_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  23. H. Naci Mocan & Stephen C. Billups & Jody Overland, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 655-681, November.
  24. H. Naci Mocan & Hope Corman, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June.
  25. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  26. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  27. Luciano Mauro & Gaetano Carmeci, 2007. "A Poverty Trap of Crime and Unemployment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 450-462, 08.
  28. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  29. David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2007. "‘The Child is Father of the Man:’ Implications for the Demographic Transition," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/05, European University Institute.
  30. Case, Anne & Fertig, Angela & Paxson, Christina, 2005. "The lasting impact of childhood health and circumstance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 365-389, March.
  31. Paolo Buonanno & Giacomo Pasini & Paolo Vanin, 2012. "Crime and social sanction," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 193-218, 03.
  32. Evans, William N. & Owens, Emily G., 2007. "COPS and crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 181-201, February.
  33. Draca, Mirko & Machin, Stephen & Witt, Robert, 2008. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," IZA Discussion Papers 3410, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  34. Osang, Thomas & Sarkar, Jayanta, 2008. "Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1423-1445, December.
  35. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Qiao, Xue, 2005. "Public and Private Expenditures on Health in a Growth Model," Staff General Research Papers 12378, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  36. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  37. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
  38. Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Gaviria, Alejandro & Pages, Carmen, 2002. "Patterns of crime victimization in Latin American cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 181-203, February.
  40. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Antonio Merlo & Peter Rupert, 2006. "Understanding the determinants of crime," Working Paper 0602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  41. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
  42. Lance Lochner, 2004. "Education, Work, and Crime: A Human Capital Approach," NBER Working Papers 10478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Claudio Detotto & Edoardo Otranto, 2010. "Does Crime Affect Economic Growth?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 330-345, 08.
  44. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  45. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
  46. Josten, Stefan Dietrich, 2003. "Inequality, Crime and Economic Growth: A Classical Argument for Distributional Equality," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 435-52, August.
  47. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen Zeldes, 2000. "Do the rich save more?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
  49. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-55, March-Apr.
  50. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "Inequality and Violent Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-40, April.
  51. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
  52. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & José A. Scheinkman, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 507-548.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier)

The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marianne Sensier to update the entry or send us the correct address

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.