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Ökonometrie der Kriminalität

  • Horst Entorf
  • Hannes Spengler

Gemäß der klassischen ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität sollte ein Anstieg der erwarteten Strafe (also des Produktes aus Strafwahrscheinlichkeit und Strafmaß) eine Reduktion der Kriminalität bewirken. In der empirischen Analyse gestaltet sich ein Test dieser Hypothese als äußerst komplex. "Kriminalität" gliedert sich in eine Vielzahl von Deliktgruppen und die Operationalisierung von "Strafwahrscheinlichkeit" durchläuft im rechtsstaatlichen System die Handlungen und Entscheidungen der Institutionen "Polizei", "Staatsanwaltschaft" und "Gericht" und variiert in den Zahlen zu Aufklärungs-, Anklage- und Verurteilungsquoten sowie in Entscheidungen über Geld-, Haft- und Bewährungs- oder Jugendstrafen. Üblicherweise wird in der empirischen Kriminalitätsforschung nur einen Bruchteil dieser Zusammenhänge gleichzeitig berücksichtigt. Prof. Dr. Horst Entorf, TU Darmstadt, und Hannes Spengler, DIW, Berlin, und TU Darmstadt, erstellten eine umfassende, mit Bundesländerdaten des Zeitraums 1977-2001 der Polizeilichen Kriminalstatistik und der Strafverfolgungsstatistik aufgebaute Datenbank. In diesem Beitrag werden die Daten und ihre Nutzbarkeit anhand deskriptiver Beschreibungen und einer panelökonometrischen Untersuchung der Wirkung des deutschen Strafverfolgungssystems auf das Aufkommen an Kriminalität in den sechs wichtigsten Deliktgruppen vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse liefern deutliche Anzeichen für die Wirksamkeit von Abschreckung und somit eine empirische Bestätigung der ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 16 (08)
Pages: 13-25

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:16:p:13-25
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  1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard B. Freeman & Harry J. Holzer, 1986. "The Black Youth Employment Crisis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number free86-1, 07.
  3. Viscusi, W Kip, 1986. "The Risks and Rewards of Criminal Activity: A Comprehensive Test of Criminal Deterrence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 317-40, July.
  4. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  5. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
  6. W. Kip Viscusi, 1986. "Market Incentives for Criminal Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The Black Youth Employment Crisis, pages 301-351 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Policeon Crime," NBER Working Papers 4991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cornwell, Christopher & Trumbull, William N, 1994. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 360-66, May.
  9. Witte, Ann Dryden, 1980. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Individual Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 57-84, February.
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