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Modeling crime in Japan


  • Halicioglu, Ferda
  • Andrés, Antonio R.
  • Yamamura, Eiji


This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda & Andrés, Antonio R. & Yamamura, Eiji, 2012. "Modeling crime in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1640-1645.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1640-1645 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.026

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Burhan, Nik Ahmad Sufian & Kurniawan, Yohan & Sidek, Abdul Halim & Mohamad, Mohd Rosli, 2014. "Crimes and the Bell Curve: The Role of People with High, Average, and Low Intelligence," MPRA Paper 77314, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Burhan, Nik Ahmad Sufian & Che Razak, Razli & Selamat, Muhamad Rosli & Rosli, Muhamad Ridhwan, 2017. "Intellectual Giftedness for Leadership: How Robust is the Crime Reducing Effect of Intellectual Class?," MPRA Paper 77467, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Crime; Cointegration; Time series; Japan;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law


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