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Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime in Turkey

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study is concerned with understanding of the factors of aggregate, nonviolent and violent crime categories in Turkey for the period 1965-2009. The determinants of all crime categories are related to selected socio-economic factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the existence of long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields the major contributors of crime are income and unemployment. The direction of causalities between the variables are established using within and out of sample causality tests. The findings from this study present the dynamics of aggregate, violent and non-violent crimes to design and implement any relevant policy measures to combat them.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime in Turkey," MPRA Paper 41794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patricia Funk & Peter Kugler, 2003. "Identifying Efficient Crime-Combating Policies by VAR Models: The Example of Switzerland," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 525-538, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. HALICIOGLU, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2017. "Testing the Productivity Bias Hypothesis in Middle East Countries," MPRA Paper 83528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Output, renewable and non-renewable energy production, and international trade: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 995-1002.
    3. Ferda, HALICIOGLU & Kasim, EREN, 2013. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," MPRA Paper 50098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alassane Diaw & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Nicoleta Claudia Moldovan, 2014. "Some relevant risk factors and causal mechanisms to understand crime in Romania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 8(2), pages 64-69, June.
    5. Adenuga Fabian ADEKOYA & SNor Azam Abdul RAZAK, 2016. "Effect Of Crime On Poverty In Nigeria," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 11(2), pages 29-42, June.
    6. Ferda Halicioglu, 2013. "Dynamics of obesity in Finland," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 644-657, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crime; cointegration; causality; time series; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics

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