IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tei/journl/v2y2009i2p51-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Dritsakis

    (University of Macedonia, Department of Applied Informatics, Greece)

  • Alexandros Gkanas

    (University of Macedonia, Department of Applied Informatics, Greece)

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the relationship between the criminal offences, the function of the justice system and some of their socio-economic determinants in the case of Greece by estimating their dynamic interactions. The analysis covers the period 1971-2006 and the cointegration methodologies of Johansen (1988) and Johansen- Juselius (1990, 1992) are applied to the VAR model. From the cointegration results, a cointegrating vector is shown among total offences, convicted persons and socio-economic variables. Moreover, Error Correction Models are estimated for the short-run dynamics of the explanatory variables and their convergence to a long-run equilibrium state

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Dritsakis & Alexandros Gkanas, 2009. "The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 2(2), pages 51-64, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:51-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ijbesar.teiemt.gr/docs/volume2_issue2/determinants.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://ijbesar.teiemt.gr/volume2_issue2.php
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia Funk & Peter Kugler, 2003. "Identifying Efficient Crime‐Combating Policies by VAR Models: The Example of Switzerland," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 525-538, October.
    2. Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-283, April.
    3. Scorcu, Antonello E. & Cellini, Roberto, 1998. "Economic activity and crime in the long run: an empirical investigation on aggregate data from Italy, 1951-1994," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 279-292, September.
    4. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Merlo, Antonio & Rupert, Peter, 2000. "On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Kerry Papps & Rainer Winkelmann, 2000. "Unemployment and crime: New evidence for an old question," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 53-71.
    6. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    10. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
    11. Belton M. Fleisher, 1963. "The Effect of Unemployment on Juvenile Delinquency," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 543-543.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    13. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    14. Chester L. Britt, 1994. "Crime and Unemployment Among Youths in the United States, 1958‐1990," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January.
    15. S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
    16. George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
    17. Corman, Hope & Joyce, Theodore & Lovitch, Norman, 1987. "Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 695-700, November.
    18. Eric D. Gould & Bruce A. Weinberg & David B. Mustard, 2002. "Crime Rates And Local Labor Market Opportunities In The United States: 1979-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 45-61, February.
    19. John Luiz, 2001. "Temporal Association, the Dynamics of Crime, and their Economic Determinants: A Time Series Econometric Model of South Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 33-61, January.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2079-2095.
    21. H. Naci Mocan & Hope Corman, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June.
    22. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin, 2015. "Crime and Economic Incentives," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 389-408, August.
    23. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-791, October.
    24. Fleisher, Belton M, 1970. "The Effect of Income on Delinquency: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 257-257, March.
    25. Reilly, Barry & Witt, Robert, 1992. "Crime and Unemployment in Scotland: An Econometric Analysis Using Regional Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 213-228, May.
    26. Papps, Kerry L. & Winkelmann, Rainer, 1998. "Unemployment and Crime: New Answers to an Old Question," IZA Discussion Papers 25, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    27. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    28. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    29. Thomas J. Young, 1993. "Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 413-416, October.
    30. Karin Edmark, 2005. "Unemployment and Crime: Is There a Connection?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 353-373, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aldenis Vásquez & Rafael Alvarado & Brayan Tillaguango & Cem Işık & Muntasir Murshed, 2023. "Impact of Social and Institutional Indicators on the Homicide Rate in Ecuador: An Analysis Using Advanced Time Series Techniques," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Alexi Thompson & Christopher Jeffords, 2018. "Abortion and Property Crime: What becomes of the Mothers?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2490-2499.
    3. Elvira Sapienza, 2013. "Usura ed estorsione nel mezzogiorno: una stima delle determinanti," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(109), pages 45-67.
    4. Saqib Amin & Nawaz Ahmad, 2018. "Ethnic Diversity, Social Exclusion and Economic Determinants of Crimes: A Case Study of Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 267-286, November.
    5. José Caraballo-Cueto, 2015. "Socioeconomic Determinants of the Changes in Homicides over Time: A VAR Analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 8(2), pages 119-132, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferda Halicioglu, 2012. "Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(9), pages 704-720, July.
    2. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    3. Mustard, David B., 2010. "How Do Labor Markets Affect Crime? New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 4856, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Altindag, Duha T., 2012. "Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-157.
    5. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.
    6. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    7. Halicioglu, Ferda & Andrés, Antonio R. & Yamamura, Eiji, 2012. "Modeling crime in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1640-1645.
    8. Kangoh Lee, 2018. "Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-80, February.
    9. Sourav Batabyal, 2011. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime and Delinquency," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 421-441, December.
    10. David B. Mustard, 2010. "Labor Markets and Crime: New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Eide, Erling & Rubin, Paul H. & Shepherd, Joanna M., 2006. "Economics of Crime," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 205-279, December.
    12. Martin Nordin & Daniel Almén, 2017. "Long-term unemployment and violent crime," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-29, February.
    13. Vujić Sunčica & Koopman Siem Jan & Commandeur J.F., 2012. "Economic Trends and Cycles in Crime: A Study for England and Wales," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(6), pages 652-677, December.
    14. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    15. Nouman Khaliq & Muhammad Shabbir & Zahira Batool, 2019. "Exploring the Influence of Unemployment on Criminal Behavior in Punjab, Pakistan," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 402-409, March.
    16. Otto Lenhart, 2021. "Earned income tax credit and crime," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 589-607, July.
    17. Paolo Buonanno & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2012. "Police and Crime: Evidence from Dictated Delays in Centralized Police Hiring," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 244, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    18. Montolio, Daniel, 2018. "The effects of local infrastructure investment on crime," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 210-230.
    19. Brosnan, Stephen, 2016. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime in Ireland from 2003-2012," MPRA Paper 74118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mocan Naci & Unel Bulent, 2017. "Skill-Biased Technological Change, Earnings of Unskilled Workers, and Crime," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-46, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crimes; Socioeconomic determinants; Greece; Cointegration; Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:51-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kostas Stergidis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbikagr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.