IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v163y2000i1p81-97.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?

Author

Listed:
  • S. Pudney
  • D. Deadman
  • D. Pyle

Abstract

We investigate the estimation of dynamic models of criminal activity, when there is significant under‐recording of crime. We give a theoretical analysis and use simulation techniques to investigate the resulting biases in conventional regression estimates. We find the biases to be of little practical significance. We develop and apply a new simulated maximum likelihood procedure that estimates simultaneously the measurement error and crime processes, using extraneous survey data. This also confirms that measurement error biases are small. Our estimation results for data from England and Wales imply a significant response of crime to both the economic and the enforcement environment.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:163:y:2000:i:1:p:81-97
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-985X.00158
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-985X.00158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Foreman-Peck, James & Moore, Simon C., 2010. "Gratuitous violence and the rational offender model," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 160-172, June.
    2. Derek Deadman, "undated". "Forecasting Trends in Recorded Crime," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 01/1, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    3. World Bank, 2003. "Jamaica - The Road to Sustained Growth : Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Publications - Reports 14666, The World Bank Group.
    4. Manea, Roxana Elena & Piraino, Patrizio & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Derek Deadman, "undated". "Forecasting Residential Burglary," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 00/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    6. Eide, Erling & Rubin, Paul H. & Shepherd, Joanna M., 2006. "Economics of Crime," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 205-279, December.
    7. World Bank, 2004. "The Road to Sustained Growth in Jamaica," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15014, December.
    8. Mathijs Kros & Eva Jaspers & Frank Tubergen, 2023. "Longitudinal Changes in Interracial Hate Crimes in the USA, 1990–2014: Does Racial Composition Matter?," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 547-566, June.
    9. George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
    10. Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Official Crime Statistics: Their Use and Interpretation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 85-106, February.
    11. George Saridakis & Sandra Sookram, 2014. "Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 23-56, March.
    12. Justina A.V. Fischer, 2005. "The Impact of Direct Democracy on Crime: Is the Median Voter Boundedly Rational?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-14, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    13. Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 197-237, September.
    14. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Alexandros Gkanas, 2009. "The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 2(2), pages 51-64, December.
    15. Deadman, Derek, 2003. "Forecasting residential burglary," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 567-578.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:163:y:2000:i:1:p:81-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.