Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey
This paper provides an econometric assessment of the deterrence model, with a specific focus on violent crime in England and Wales. It finds that beliefs about the probability of arrest are substantially lower than official arrests rates, but when adjusting for non-reporting by victims, the perceived risk of arrest and actual arrest rate are very similar. Further, no empirical evidence is found to the effect that perception of the probability of arrest differ between criminals and non-criminals. Perceptions about general perceived risk of arrest are not found to be related to an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Instead, an individual's beliefs about the perceived probability of arrest are largely affected by neighbourhood conditions and victimisation. The link between perceptions and criminal behaviour is also examined, but the empirical evidence is not in line with the basic predictions of the economic theory of crime.
Volume (Year): 19 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Burton Street, Nottingham, NG1 4BU|
Web page: http://www.economicissues.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000.
"Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states,"
International Review of Law and Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
- Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 1998. "Socio-economic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: evidence from panel data of the German states," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-16, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- George Saridakis, 2004.
"Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000,"
European Journal of Law and Economics,
Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
- George Saridakis, 2003. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960-2000," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Lance Lochner, 2003.
"Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System,"
NBER Working Papers
9474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March.
- Lance Lochner, 2005. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," 2005 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Randi Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Crime and Expected Punishment: Changes in Perceptions at the Age of Criminal Majority," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 209-248.
- George Saridakis, 2011. "Violent crime and incentives in the long-run: evidence from England and Wales," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 647-660, November.
- S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under-recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
- D. McFadden & J. Hausman, 1981.
"Specification Tests for the Multinominal Logit Model,"
292, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
- Cameron, Samuel, 1988. "The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 301-23.
- Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 197-237, September.
- Farmer, Amy & Tiefenthaler, Jill, 1996. "Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 274-79, May.
- Sah, Raaj K, 1991.
"Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1272-95, December.
- Sah, R.K., 1990. "Social Osmosis And Patterns Of Crime: A Dynamic Economic Analysis," Papers 609, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Johannes Rincke & Christian Traxler, 2009.
"Deterrence through Word of Mouth,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2549, CESifo Group Munich.
- Johannes Rincke & Christian Traxler, 2009. "Deterrence Through Word of Mouth," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2009_04, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
- Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
- Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, .
"Offenders as Victims of Crime? An Investigation into the Relationship between Criminal Behaviour and Victimisation,"
Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics
01/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, 2004. "Offenders as victims of crime?: an investigation into the relationship between criminal behaviour and victimization," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 53-67.
- Deadman, Derek & Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Offenders as Victims of Crime? An Investigation into the Relationship Between Criminal Behaviour and Victimisation," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 57, Royal Economic Society.
- Gary S. Becker, 1968.
"Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
- Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-51, June.
- George Saridakis & Hannes Spengler, 2009. "Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 853, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eis:articl:114saridakis. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dan Wheatley)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.