Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey
This paper provides an econometric assessment of the deterrence model, with a specific focus on violent crime in England and Wales. It finds that beliefs about the probability of arrest are substantially lower than official arrests rates, but when adjusting for non-reporting by victims, the perceived risk of arrest and actual arrest rate are very similar. Further, no empirical evidence is found to the effect that perception of the probability of arrest differ between criminals and non-criminals. Perceptions about general perceived risk of arrest are not found to be related to an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Instead, an individual's beliefs about the perceived probability of arrest are largely affected by neighbourhood conditions and victimisation. The link between perceptions and criminal behaviour is also examined, but the empirical evidence is not in line with the basic predictions of the economic theory of crime.
Volume (Year): 19 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Burton Street, Nottingham, NG1 4BU|
Web page: http://www.economicissues.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George Saridakis, 2003.
"Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960-2000,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
03/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
- Lance Lochner, 2003.
"Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System,"
NBER Working Papers
9474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March.
- Lance Lochner, 2005. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," 2005 Meeting Papers 452, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Johannes Rincke & Christian Traxler, 2009.
"Deterrence Through Word of Mouth,"
Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
2009_04, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
- Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, 2004.
"Offenders as victims of crime?: an investigation into the relationship between criminal behaviour and victimization,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 53-67.
- Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, . "Offenders as Victims of Crime? An Investigation into the Relationship between Criminal Behaviour and Victimisation," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 01/10, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Deadman, Derek & Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Offenders as Victims of Crime? An Investigation into the Relationship Between Criminal Behaviour and Victimisation," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 57, Royal Economic Society.
- Gary S. Becker, 1974.
"Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,"
in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Saridakis, 2011. "Violent crime and incentives in the long-run: evidence from England and Wales," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 647-660, November.
- Sah, R.K., 1990.
"Social Osmosis And Patterns Of Crime: A Dynamic Economic Analysis,"
609, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- D. McFadden & J. Hausman, 1981.
"Specification Tests for the Multinominal Logit Model,"
292, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
- Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
- Farmer, Amy & Tiefenthaler, Jill, 1996. "Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 274-79, May.
- Randi Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Crime and Expected Punishment: Changes in Perceptions at the Age of Criminal Majority," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 209-248.
- Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 197-237, September.
- George Saridakis & Hannes Spengler, 2009. "Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 853, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571 Elsevier.
- S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under-recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
- Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000.
"Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states,"
International Review of Law and Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
- Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 1998. "Socio-economic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: evidence from panel data of the German states," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-16, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-51, June.
- Cameron, Samuel, 1988. "The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 301-23.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eis:articl:114saridakis. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dan Wheatley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.