IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eis/articl/114saridakis.html

Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey

Author

Listed:
  • George Saridakis
  • Sandra Sookram

Abstract

This paper provides an econometric assessment of the deterrence model, with a specific focus on violent crime in England and Wales. It finds that beliefs about the probability of arrest are substantially lower than official arrests rates, but when adjusting for non-reporting by victims, the perceived risk of arrest and actual arrest rate are very similar. Further, no empirical evidence is found to the effect that perception of the probability of arrest differ between criminals and non-criminals. Perceptions about general perceived risk of arrest are not found to be related to an individual's own criminal and arrest history. Instead, an individual's beliefs about the perceived probability of arrest are largely affected by neighbourhood conditions and victimisation. The link between perceptions and criminal behaviour is also examined, but the empirical evidence is not in line with the basic predictions of the economic theory of crime.

Suggested Citation

  • George Saridakis & Sandra Sookram, 2014. "Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 23-56, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:114saridakis
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Files/2014/114Saridakis.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Johannes Rincke & Christian Traxler, 2009. "Deterrence Through Word of Mouth," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics 2009_04, Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics.
    3. Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, 2004. "Offenders as victims of crime?: an investigation into the relationship between criminal behaviour and victimization," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 53-67, February.
    4. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    5. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
    6. George Saridakis, 2011. "Violent crime and incentives in the long-run: evidence from England and Wales," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 647-660, November.
    7. George Saridakis & Hannes Spengler, 2009. "Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 853, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Randi Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Crime and Expected Punishment: Changes in Perceptions at the Age of Criminal Majority," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 209-248.
    9. repec:bla:kyklos:v:41:y:1988:i:2:p:301-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 197-237, September.
    11. Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-451, June.
    12. Freeman, Richard B., 1999. "The economics of crime," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 52, pages 3529-3571, Elsevier.
    13. Brand, Sam & Price, Richard, 2000. "The economic and social costs of crime," MPRA Paper 74968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
    15. Sah, Raaj K, 1991. "Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1272-1295, December.
    16. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2002. "Crime in Europe : causes and consequences," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24090, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    17. Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March.
    18. Farmer, Amy & Tiefenthaler, Jill, 1996. "Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 274-279, May.
    19. S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
    20. George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 197-237, September.
    2. Justina A.V. Fischer, 2005. "The Impact of Direct Democracy on Crime: Is the Median Voter Boundedly Rational?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-14, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    3. Eide, Erling & Rubin, Paul H. & Shepherd, Joanna M., 2006. "Economics of Crime," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 205-279, December.
    4. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2010. "What Do Economists Know about Crime?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 269-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ochsen, Carsten, 2010. "Crime and labor market policy in Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 52-61, March.
    6. Ochsen, Carsten, 2005. "Crime and European labour market policy," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 55, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    7. Entorf, H. & Winker, P., 2008. "Investigating the drugs-crime channel in economics of crime models: Empirical evidence from panel data of the German States," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 8-22, March.
    8. Edmark, Karin, 2003. "The Effects of Unemployment on Property Crime: Evidence from a Period of Unusually Large Swings in the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 2003:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Javier Núñez & Jorge Rivera & Xavier Villavicencio & Oscar Molina, 2003. "Determinantes socioeconómicos y demográficos del crimen en Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1 Year 20), pages 55-85, June.
    10. Gerlinde Fellner & Rupert Sausgruber & Christian Traxler, 2013. "Testing Enforcement Strategies In The Field: Threat, Moral Appeal And Social Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 634-660, June.
    11. Ann Dryden Witte & Robert Witt, 2001. "What We Spend and What We Get: Public and Private Provision of Crime Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Buonanno, Paolo & Montolio, Daniel, 2008. "Identifying the socio-economic and demographic determinants of crime across Spanish provinces," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 89-97, June.
    13. Tripathi, Jai Prakash & Bugalia, Sarita & Burdak, Kavita & Abbas, Syed, 2021. "Dynamical analysis and effects of law enforcement in a social interaction model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 567(C).
    14. Leo H. Kahane & David Paton & Rob Simmons, 2008. "The Abortion–Crime Link: Evidence from England and Wales," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 1-21, February.
    15. Anna Bonanno, 2006. "The economic analysis of offender’s choice: Old and new insights," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 53(2), pages 193-224, June.
    16. Guido Travaglini, 2003. "Property Crime and Law Enforcement in Italy. A Regional Panel Analysis 1980-95," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 62(2), pages 211-240, October.
    17. Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Official Crime Statistics: Their Use and Interpretation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 85-106, February.
    18. Paolo Buonanno, 2006. "Crime and Labour Market Opportunities in Italy (1993–2002)," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(4), pages 601-624, December.
    19. Zuzana Janko & Gurleen Popli, 2015. "Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4007-4019, August.
    20. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Julien Pouget, 2009. "Youth Unemployment and Crime in France," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 909-938, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eis:articl:114saridakis. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dan Wheatley (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsntuuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.