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Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960-2000

  • George Saridakis

    ()

This paper empirically assesses the effect of socio-economic and demographic variables on violent crime in the United States. Using national-level time-series data over the period 1960-2000, I estimate an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model individually for overall violent crime, murder, rape and assault. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among the examined variables, but a significant short-run relationship holds. Imprisonment growth, income inequality, alcohol consumption, and racial composition of the male youth population are shown to influence the short-run behaviour of violent crime.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp03-14.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 03/14.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:03/14
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  16. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
  17. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  18. Steven D. Levitt, 1996. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 319-351.
  19. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  20. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "Inequality and Violent Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 1-40, April.
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