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Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime and Delinquency

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  • Sourav Batabyal

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Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to identify crime-delinquency relationship at the national level. We apply various techniques to identify the dynamic relationship between crime and delinquency rates in USA from 1987 to 2008. Two types of crime rates are observed, violent and property crime rate. The study finds strong short-term evidence that delinquency causes an increase in property crime rate for the years 1987 through 1995 and again 1996 through 2000, but no evidence for a long-term relationship in the full sample 1987 through 2008. The reverse effect of crime on delinquency rate is mostly insignificant. The property values work as a linkage between crime-delinquency relationship in the short-term data. One important finding of this study is the apparent exogeneity of the crime rate with respect to delinquency rate during the economic downturn. We also control for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, housing starts, and median weekly wage. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Sourav Batabyal, 2011. "Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime and Delinquency," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 421-441, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:421-441
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-011-9289-8
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-011-9289-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violent crime; Property crime; Delinquency; Granger causality; Impulse response; Variance decomposition; C32; K42; G21;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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