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Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey

  • Ferda Halicioglu

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of crime in Turkey at aggregate and disaggregate levels and provide empirical evidence of temporal causality between crime, health, income, divorce, urbanization and security expenditures. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs bounds testing cointegration procedure, augmented causality tests and variance decompositions. Findings – The empirical results suggest the existence of cointegration amongst the variables. Augmented Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analyses indicate the different level, long-term associations between the variables. Practical implications – Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers and practitioners in international law organizations. Originality/value – The paper provides first-time, comprehensive, time-series evidence on the dynamics of crime in Turkey using the framework of cointegration and causality tests.

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Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal International Journal of Social Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 9 (July)
Pages: 704-720

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Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:9:p:704-720
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  18. John Luiz, 2001. "Temporal Association, the Dynamics of Crime, and their Economic Determinants: A Time Series Econometric Model of South Africa," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 33-61, January.
  19. Gary Shoesmith, 2010. "Four factors that explain both the rise and fall of US crime, 1970-2003," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2957-2973.
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