Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey
This paper provides fresh evidence on the validity of twin deficit and the Feldstein-Horioka hypotheses for Turkey during the period of 1987-2004 using bounds testing approach to cointegration. In order to explain the main determinants of the current account deficits in the long-run, the fiscal balance and the domestic investments are used in an econometric model.The cointegration tests indicate the presence of a long-run relationship between the current account and budget deficits as well as the domestic investments during the estimation period. As a result, it is concluded that the twin deficit hypothesis and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle are present and Turkey appeared to be integrated in the world capital market with a low degree of capital mobility as less than 1/5 of its domestic investment is financed through external funds. The augmented Granger-causality tests suggest no causality between the current account and budget deficits, both in the short-run and the long-run. The post-sample variance decompositions suggest that the domestic investments are the main cause of current deficits in the long-run. The paper also discusses the policy implications of the empirical results.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Sachsida, Adolfo & Caetano, Marcelo Abi-Ramia, 2000.
"The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited,"
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 85-88, July.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Andrés, Antonio R. & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010.
"Determinants of suicides in Denmark: Evidence from time series data,"
Elsevier, vol. 98(2-3), pages 263-269, December.
- Halicioglu, Ferda & Andrés, Antonio R., 2010. "Determinants of Suicides in Denmark: Evidence from Time Series Data," MPRA Paper 24980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008.
"Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," GEMF Working Papers 2006-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Ferda Halicioglu & Mehmet Ugur, 2005. "On stability of the demand for money in a developing OECD country: the case of Turkey," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(2/3), pages 203-213.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Altinanahtar, Alper & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009. "A Dynamic Econometric Study of Suicides in Turkey," MPRA Paper 15568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrés, Antonio R. & Halicioglu, Ferda & Yamamura, Eiji, 2011. "Socio-economic determinants of suicide in Japan," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 723-731.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.