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The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This paper tests the existence of Gibson paradox using the traditional and modern time series techniques in the case of annual Turkish data. Even though the results from the traditional Gibson paradox regression suggested a positive relationship between the interest rates and the prices levels in Turkish data, subsequently it was proven to be spurious. On analyzing the time series properties of the variables and the results from the Johansen cointegration procedure, we reveal that there is no support of the Gibson paradox in Turkish data.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2004. "The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey," MPRA Paper 3556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3556
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    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1973. "Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of the Gibson Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 385-449, Part II F.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. William J. Milne & Walter N. Torous, 1984. "Long-Term Interest Rates and the Price Level: The Canadian Evidence on the Gibson Paradox," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 327-339, May.
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    5. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
    6. Serletis, Apostolos & Zestos, George, 1999. "On the Gibson Paradox," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 117-125, February.
    7. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Spinelli, Franco, 1996. "Gibson's Paradox and Policy Regimes: A Comparison of the Experience in the US, UK and Italy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(4), pages 468-492, September.
    8. Daniel K. Benjamin & Levis A. Kochin, 1984. "War, Prices, and Interest Rates: A Martial Solution to Gibson's Paradox," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 587-612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1989. "A Random Walk through the Gibson Paradox," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 295-303, July-Sept.
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    11. Frank J. Atkins & Apostolos Serletis, 2003. "Bounds Tests of the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect: Evidence from Low‐Frequency International Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(6), pages 673-679, December.
    12. Lee, Chi-Wen Jevons & Petruzzi, Christopher R, 1986. "The Gibson Paradox and the Monetary Standard," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 189-196, May.
    13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    14. Sumner, Scott, 1993. "The Role of the Gold Standard in the Gibson Paradox," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 215-228, July.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
    17. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    18. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1990. "Some Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Purchasing Power Parity and the Uncovered Interest Parity for UK," Discussion Papers 90-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferda Halicioglu & Natalya Ketenci, 2018. "Testing the productivity bias hypothesis in Middle East countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 922-931, October.
    2. Ferda, HALICIOGLU & Kasim, EREN, 2013. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," MPRA Paper 50098, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gibson paradox; co-integration; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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