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A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study attempts to examine empirically dynamic causal relationships between aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1968–2008. This research tests the interrelationships between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds test results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables in which the dependent variable is aggregate output. Within this study, three competing sets of hypotheses regarding the relationship between aggregate output, exports and energy consumption are tested. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from labour, capital, exports and energy consumption to aggregate output. In the short-run, two important bilateral causalities were identified: between energy consumption and aggregate output, between exports and aggregate output. The short-run causality testing reveals further the existence of a unilateral causality running from exports to energy consumption too. The long-run relationship of aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour equation is also checked for the parameter stability. The results also provide some important policy recommendations.

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:5:p:3348-3354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.03.031
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Saleheen & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-21.
    2. Saleheen, Khan & Farooq Ahmed, Jam & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan: Fresh Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 43460, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2012.
    3. Zaman, Khalid & Mushtaq Khan, Muhammad & Ahmad, Mehboob, 2013. "Factors affecting commercial energy consumption in Pakistan: Progress in energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 107-135.
    4. Dogan, Eyup, 2016. "Analyzing the linkage between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth by considering structural break in time-series data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1126-1136.
    5. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ling, Chong Hui & Sbia, Rashid, 2014. "Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-143.
    7. Ferda, HALICIOGLU & Kasim, EREN, 2013. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," MPRA Paper 50098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Sabeen & Masood, Sameen, 2015. "The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 265-274.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-592 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2016. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality: The case of transition countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1130-1138.
    11. Hasson, Ashwaq & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Energy consumption, trade openness, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and electricity consumption: evidence from South Africa based on ARDL," MPRA Paper 79424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tolga Kaya, 2017. "Unraveling the Energy use Network of Construction Sector in Turkey using Structural Path Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 31-43.
    13. repec:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:170-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "Energy Conservation Policies may affect Trade Performance in Pakistan: Confirmation of Feedback Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 57775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Alper, Aslan & Oguz, Ocal, 2016. "The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth: Evidence from asymmetric causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 953-959.
    16. Islam, Faridul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur, 2013. "Trade Openness, Financial Development Energy Use and Economic Growth in Australia:Evidence on Long Run Relation with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 52546, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2013.
    17. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "The impact of international trade on environmental quality in transition countries: evidence from time series data during 1991-2013," MPRA Paper 71097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    18. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Adeniyi, Oluwatosin, 2015. "Trade and consumption of energy varieties: Empirical analysis of selected West Africa economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 354-366.
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    20. Eyup Dogan, 2016. "The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Trade," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 70-80, March.
    21. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2012. "Electricity saving potential of the power generation industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 307-316.
    22. Liu, Hongtao & Polenske, Karen R. & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Xi, Youmin, 2014. "Direct and indirect energy use in China and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 414-420.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate output; Energy consumption; Cointegration; Granger causality; Stability tests; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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