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A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

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  • Ferda Halicioglu

Abstract

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2007_05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2007_05
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    19. A. F. Darrat & M. K. Hsu & M. Zhong, 2000. "Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 563-567.
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    Cited by:

    1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    2. Tafirenyika Sunde & Cyril Ayetuoma Ogbokor, 2018. "The Effects of Exports in SACU Countries: An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 142-155, AUGUST.
    3. Ousama Ben-Salha & Abir Abid & Ghassen El Montasser, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages Between Exports and Growth in Next Eleven Economies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1194-1226, June.
    4. Yahya Can DURA & Mustafa Kemal BESER & Hakan ACAROGLU, 2017. "Türkiye’nin Ihracata Dayali Buyumesinin Ekonometrik Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 295-310.
    5. M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    6. Ranjan Kumar Nayak, 2022. "Performance of Odisha State Co-operative Bank: An ARDL Approach," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 21(1), pages 7-26, June.
    7. masron, Tajul arrifin & Mohd naseem niaz, Ahmad, 2008. "Export, Economic Integration and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Akbay O. S., 2011. "Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 28, pages 108-114, May.
    9. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.
    10. Hasan Comert & Selman Colak, 2014. "The Impacts of the Global Crisis on the Turkish Economy and Policy Responses," ERC Working Papers 1417, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2014.
    11. Ferda Halıcıoğlu & Kasım Eren, 2017. "Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 3(1), pages 35-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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