IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v13y2012i2p201-219.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Shahbaz
  • Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

Abstract

The article investigates the effect of financial development, imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in case of Pakistan over the period of 1990–2008 using quarterly data set. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to examine the long-run relationship and the direction of causality is investigated using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework between the variables. Our findings confirm the existence of cointegration, showing long-run relation between financial development, imports, FDI and economic growth. Financial development, imports and FDI have a positive and significant effect on economic growth of the country. Causality analysis reveals a bidirectional relation among the variables but strong causality is also running from financial development, economic growth and FDI to real imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:201-219
    DOI: 10.1177/097215091201300202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/097215091201300202
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/097215091201300202?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rene Teboul & Emmanuelle Moustier, 2001. "Foreign aid and economic growth: the case of the countries south of the Mediterranean," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 187-190.
    2. Aitken, Brian & Hanson, Gordon H. & Harrison, Ann E., 1997. "Spillovers, foreign investment, and export behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 103-132, August.
    3. Magnus Blomström & Ari Kokko & Mario Zejan, 2000. "Local Technological Capability and Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 11, pages 177-186, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-151, January.
    6. Greaney, Theresa M. & Li, Yao, 2009. "Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China, Japan, and the United States," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 611-625, November.
    7. Asafu-Adjaye, John & Chakraborty, Debasish, 1999. "Export-Led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence from LDCs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 164-175, June.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & S M Aamir Shamim & Naveed Aamir, 2010. "Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Sector’s Performance: Econometric Evidence from Three Traditional Approaches," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1 & 2), pages 103-123, March & J.
    9. Kevin Honglin Zhang, 2001. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 679-693, November.
    10. Chee-keong Choong & Venus khim-sen Liew, 2009. "Impact of foreign direct investment volatility on economic growth of asean-5 countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1829-1841.
    11. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    12. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    13. Wang, Jian-Ye, 1990. "Growth, technology transfer, and the long-run theory of international capital movements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 255-271, November.
    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    15. Linda Cotton & Vijaya Ramachandran, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Economies: Lessons from Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-82, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    17. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
    18. Hakan Çetintaş & Salih Barişik, 2009. "Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(4), pages 636-649, February.
    19. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    20. Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
    21. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nadeem Ahmad & Abu Wahid, 2010. "Savings–Investment Correlation and Capital Outflow: The Case of Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(1), pages 80-97, May.
    22. Vijaya Ramachandran & Manju Kedia Shah, 1999. "Minority entrepreneurs and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 71-87.
    23. Chee-Keong Choong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth: the case of Malaysia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 13-30.
    24. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "The effects of inflation on economic growth : Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 417-425, April.
    25. Blomstrom, Magnus & Wolff, E.N., 1989. "Multinational Corporations And Productivity Convergence In Mexico," Working Papers 89-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    26. Stephen K. Layson, 1983. "Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time-Series Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-73, February.
    27. Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
    28. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    29. Talan Iscan, 1998. "Trade liberalisation and productivity: A panel study of the Mexican manufacturing industry," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 123-148.
    30. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    31. KC Fung & Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Francis Ng, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment in Cross-Border Infrastructure Projects 1," Working Papers 0917, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    32. Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 651-664.
    33. Feenstra, Robert C. & Hanson, Gordon H., 1997. "Foreign direct investment and relative wages: Evidence from Mexico's maquiladoras," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 371-393, May.
    34. Sjoholm, Fredrik, 1999. "Productivity Growth in Indonesia: The Role of Regional Characteristics and Direct Foreign Investment," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 559-584, April.
    35. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    36. Jamshid Damooei. & Tavakoli, Akbar., 2006. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment And Imports on Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Thailand and the Philippines (1970-1998)," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 39(2), pages 79-100, January-M.
    37. Hyejoon Im, 2009. "Equilibrium coalition structures in the presence of foreign direct investment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 139-167.
    38. Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Titus Awokuse, 2007. "Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 161-173.
    40. Haishun Sun, 1998. "Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979–96," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 675-694, July.
    41. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
    42. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
    43. Yamin Ahmad & Pietro Cova & Rodrigo Harrison, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment versus Portfolio Investment : A Global Games Approach," Working Papers 05-03, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    44. Mr. Mohsin S. Khan & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2000. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview," IMF Working Papers 2000/209, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Mohammad Shahbaz, 2009. "A Reassessment of Finance-Growth Nexus for Pakistan: Under the Investigation of FMOLS and DOLS Techniques," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 65-80, January.
    46. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    47. Ronald Findlay, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16.
    48. Cameron, Samuel, 1994. "A review of the econometric evidence on the effects of capital punishment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 197-214.
    49. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-458, June.
    50. Christer Ljungwall & Junjie Li, 2007. "Financial Sector Development, FDI and Economic Growth in China," Finance Working Papers 22026, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    51. Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2004. "Trade, Technology, and Productivity: A Study of Brazilian Manufacturers, 1986-1998," CESifo Working Paper Series 1148, CESifo.
    52. He, Yan & Long, Fu, 2003. "Market expansion versus cost reduction: a financial analysis of foreign direct investment advantages for multinational enterprises," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 407-417, December.
    53. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    54. Jie Li & Ramkishen Rajan, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Transfer Under Uncertainty in a Liberalizing Host Economy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 23-41.
    55. Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
    56. James Ang, 2009. "Financial development and the FDI-growth nexus: the Malaysian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1595-1601.
    57. Jesko Hentschel, 1992. "A note on the relationship between imports and growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(2), pages 339-345, June.
    58. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2010. "Finance-investment-growth nexus in South Africa: an ARDL-bounds testing procedure," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 205-219, August.
    59. Martin KHOR, 2000. "Globalization And The South: Some Critical Issues," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 147, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    60. Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2003. "Foreign trade regimes and the FDI-Growth Nexus: a case study of Thailand," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 55-69.
    61. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam, 2011. "Financial Development And Income Inequality In Pakistan: An Application Of Ardl Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 35-58, March.
    62. James Ang, 2009. "Foreign direct investment and its impact on the Thai economy: the role of financial development," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 316-323, July.
    63. Isaac Ehrlich, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter.
    64. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2011. "Revisit Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: evidence from Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2237-2249.
    65. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.
    66. Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
    67. Omran Mohammed & Bolbol Ali, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Arab Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 37-55, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Nuno Carlos leitão & Summaira Malik, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment-Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Domestic Financial Development in Portugal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2824-2838.
    3. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman, 2014. "The Dynamics of Exports, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Pakistan: New Extensions from Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 53225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2014.
    6. SBIA, Rashid & Al Rousan, Sahel, 2015. "Does Financial Development Induce Economic Growth in UAE? The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Capitalization," MPRA Paper 64599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Smile DUBE, 2012. "Revisiting the Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    8. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    9. Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Electricity Consumption, Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisit Study of Their Causality in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Corruption Increase Financial Development? A Time Series Analysis in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(10), pages 113-124, October.
    11. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    13. Onur Özdemir, 2019. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to the Income Inequality and Financial Liberalization Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 1-15.
    14. Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2013. "Effect of financial development on agricultural growth in Pakistan: New extensions from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 707-728, June.
    15. Rosemary Stanley Taylor, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth. Analysis of sectoral foreign direct investment in Tanzania," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 699-717, December.
    16. Maria Cipollina & Giorgia Giovannetti & Filomena Pietrovito & Alberto F. Pozzolo, 2012. "FDI and Growth: What Cross-country Industry Data Say," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(11), pages 1599-1629, November.
    17. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    18. Argentino Pessoa, 2008. "Multinational Corporations, Foreign Investment, and Royalties and License Fees: Effects on Host-Country Total Factor Productivity," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 28, pages 6-31, December.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Dead man walking: an empirical reassessment of the deterrent effect of capital punishment using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 1975-1989.
    20. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; imports; FDI; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:201-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.