Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan
The paper investigates the effects of imports and foreign capital inflows on economic growth in case of Pakistan over the period of 1990Q1-2008Q4. We have applied ARDL bounds testing approach to examine the long run relationship and investigated the direction of causality by using VECM multivariate framework. Our analysis confirms the long run relationship between imports, foreign capital inflows and economic growth. The results show that imports and foreign capital inflows have positive and significant effect on the economic growth of Pakistan. Causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal association among the variables, but strong causality is found from imports and foreign capital inflows to real GDP.
|Date of creation:||22 Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:||24 Mar 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rene Teboul & Emmanuelle Moustier, 2001. "Foreign aid and economic growth: the case of the countries south of the Mediterranean," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 187-190.
- Kokko, Ari & Tansini, Ruben & Zejan, Mario, 1994.
"Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
2, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Ari Kokko & Ruben Tansini & Mario Zejan, 1994. "Productivity spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan manufacturing sector," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0194, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
- de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-151, January.
- L.R. de Mello Jr., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Studies in Economics 9615, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Talan Iscan, 1998. "Trade liberalisation and productivity: A panel study of the Mexican manufacturing industry," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 123-148.
- Iscan, T., 1996. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity: A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 97-05, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Talan Iscan, 1998. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity-A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive tradelib, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Jordan Shan, 2005. "Does financial development 'lead' economic growth? A vector auto-regression appraisal," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1353-1367.
- Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Rana Ejaz Ali KHAN, 2010. "Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving – Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 7(7(548)), pages 49-60, July.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & S M Aamir Shamim & Naveed Aamir, 2010. "Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Sector’s Performance: Econometric Evidence from Three Traditional Approaches," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1 & 2), pages 103-123, March & J.
- Kevin Honglin Zhang, 2001. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 679-693, November.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Cotton, Linda & Ramachandran, Vijaya, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Economies: Lessons from sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Selin Sayek & Areendam Chanda, 2002. "FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets," Macroeconomics 0212007, EconWPA.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
- Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
- Vijaya Ramachandran & Manju Kedia Shah, 1999. "Minority entrepreneurs and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 71-87.
- Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810, 03.
- Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
- Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 651-664.
- Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Titus Awokuse, 2007. "Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 161-173.
- Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Khalil Ahmad & A. R. Chaudhary, 2008. "Economic Growth and Its Determinants in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 471-486.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Nuno Carlos leitão & Summaira Malik, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment-Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Domestic Financial Development in Portugal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2824-2838.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Summaira, Malik, 2011. "Foreign direct investment-economic growth nexus: The role of domestic financial development in Portugal," MPRA Paper 34226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2011.
- Ronald Findlay, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16.
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
- Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
- Jesko Hentschel, 1992. "A note on the relationship between imports and growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(2), pages 339-345, June.
- Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)