Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan
The article investigates the impacts of imports and foreign capital inflows on economic growth of Pakistan over the period 1990 to 2010. We have applied the structural break autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality multivariate framework is used to investigate the causal relationship between the series. Empirical analysis in this article confirms the long-run relationship between foreign capital inflows, imports and economic growth. The results indicate that foreign capital inflows and imports have positive and significant effect on economic growth in case of Pakistan. Causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between the variables, but strong causal relation is running from foreign capital inflows and imports to economic growth.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004.
"FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Selin Sayek & Areendam Chanda, 2002. "FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets," Macroeconomics 0212007, EconWPA.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Jordan Shan, 2005. "Does financial development 'lead' economic growth? A vector auto-regression appraisal," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1353-1367.
- Cotton, Linda & Ramachandran, Vijaya, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Economies: Lessons from sub-Saharan Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
- Tom Doan, . "FM: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using Fully Modified Least Squares," Statistical Software Components RTS00069, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
- Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998.
"How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Rana Ejaz Ali KHAN, 2010. "Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving – Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 7(7(548)), pages 49-60, July.
- Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 651-664.
- Kevin Honglin Zhang, 2001. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 679-693, November.
- Magnus Blomstrom & Edward N. Wolff, 1989.
"Multinational Corporations and Productivity Convergence in Mexico,"
NBER Working Papers
3141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blomstrom, Magnus & Wolff, E.N., 1989. "Multinational Corporations And Productivity Convergence In Mexico," Working Papers 89-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Vijaya Ramachandran & Manju Kedia Shah, 1999. "Minority entrepreneurs and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 71-87.
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
- Jose De Gregorio, 1991.
"Economic Growth in Latin America,"
IMF Working Papers
91/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Talan Iscan, 1998.
"Trade Liberalization and Productivity-A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry,"
Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive
tradelib, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Iscan, T., 1996. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity: A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive 97-05, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Steven Globerman, 1979. "Foreign Direct Investment and `Spillover' Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 42-56, February.
- Titus Awokuse, 2007. "Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 161-173.
- Rene Teboul & Emmanuelle Moustier, 2001. "Foreign aid and economic growth: the case of the countries south of the Mediterranean," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 187-190.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
- de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999.
"Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-51, January.
- L.R. de Mello Jr., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Studies in Economics 9615, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Jesko Hentschel, 1992. "A note on the relationship between imports and growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 339-345, June.
- Ari Kokko & Ruben Tansini & Mario Zejan, 1994.
"Productivity spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan manufacturing sector,"
Documentos de Trabajo (working papers)
0194, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Kokko, Ari & Tansini, Ruben & Zejan, Mario, 1994. "Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 2, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Findlay, Ronald, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Summaira, Malik, 2011.
"Foreign direct investment-economic growth nexus: The role of domestic financial development in Portugal,"
34226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2011.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Nuno Carlos leitão & Summaira Malik, 2011. "Foreign Direct Investment-Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Domestic Financial Development in Portugal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2824-2838.
- Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
- Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810, March.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Khalil Ahmad & A. R. Chaudhary, 2008. "Economic Growth and Its Determinants in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 471-486.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & S M Aamir Shamim & Naveed Aamir, 2010. "Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Sector’s Performance: Econometric Evidence from Three Traditional Approaches," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1 & 2), pages 103-123, March & J.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
- Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2000. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Research Report 00E27, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:14:y:2013:i:1:p:59-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.