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A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

  • Halicioglu, Ferda

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3565/1/MPRA_paper_3565.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3565.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3565
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  1. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
  2. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1," Econometrics Working Papers 0001, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  3. A. F. Darrat & M. K. Hsu & M. Zhong, 2000. "Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 563-567.
  4. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
  5. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2001. "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 681-685.
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  7. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
  8. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
  9. Stilianos Fountas, 2000. "Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 211-214.
  10. Bassam Abual-Foul, 2004. "Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 393-396.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  13. Sübidey Togan, 2004. "Turkey: Toward EU Accession," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 1013-1045, 07.
  14. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  16. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
  17. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2000. "Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 412-426, December.
  18. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
  19. Jai Mah, 2005. "Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 105-107.
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