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Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt

  • Carlos Marinheiro

    ()

    (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Egypt has presented important budget imbalances. This paper tries to evaluate whether Egypt’s public deficit has had any impact on current account imbalances, examining the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis for Egypt. We conclude for the presence of a (weak) long-run relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Yet, we reject the twin-deficit hypothesis: we found evidence in favour of a reverse Granger-causality running from the external deficit to the budget deficit. Further, we conclude against the validity of full Ricardian equivalence in Egypt and present evidence in favour of a high degree of capital mobility.

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Paper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2006-07.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Policy Modeling 30(6): 1041-1056, 2008.
Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2006-07
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  3. Michel Normandin, 1996. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Macroeconomics 9607001, EconWPA.
  4. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
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  9. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
  10. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," Working Papers 163, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  11. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
  12. Jahangir Aziz & Francesco Caramazza, 1998. "Fixed or Flexible? Getting the Exchange Rate Right in the 1990s," IMF Economic Issues 13, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  15. Eugene Kouassi & Mbodja Mougoué & Kern O. Kymn, 2004. "Causality tests of the relationship between the twin deficits," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 503-525, 09.
  16. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, EconWPA.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "The Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 7901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Thissen, Mark & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Macroeconomic effects of a currency devaluation in Egypt: An analysis with a computable general equilibrium model with financial markets and forward-looking expectations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 411-419, May.
  21. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
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