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The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil

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  • Diogo G. C. Britto
  • Paolo Pinotti
  • Breno Sampaio

Abstract

We investigate the impact of job loss on crime and the mitigating role of unemployment benefits, exploiting detailed individual‐level data linking employment careers, criminal records, and welfare registries for the universe of male workers in Brazil. The probability of committing crimes increases on average by 23% for workers displaced by mass layoffs, and by slightly less for their cohabiting sons. Using causal forests, we show that the effect is entirely driven by young and low‐tenure workers, while there is no heterogeneity by education and income. Regression discontinuity estimates indicate that unemployment benefit eligibility completely offsets potential crime increases upon job loss, but this effect vanishes completely immediately after benefit expiration. Our findings point to liquidity constraints and psychological stress as the main drivers of criminal behavior upon job loss, while substitution between time on the job and leisure does not seem to play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Diogo G. C. Britto & Paolo Pinotti & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1393-1423, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:90:y:2022:i:4:p:1393-1423
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA18984
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    Cited by:

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    2. Francesco Filippucci, 2022. "What Do NEETs Need? The Effect of Combining Activation Policies and Cash Transfers," Working Papers halshs-03524083, HAL.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2023. "Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1459, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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    7. Bingley, Paul & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Ovidi, Marco, 2023. "When It Hurts the Most: Timing of Parental Job Loss and a Child's Education," IZA Discussion Papers 16367, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Pinotti, Paolo & Bhalotra, Sonia & Britto, Diogo & Sampaio, Breno, 2021. "Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Newham, Melissa & Valente, Marica, 2024. "The cost of influence: How gifts to physicians shape prescriptions and drug costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Eduardo Ferraz & Rodrigo Soares & Juan Vargas, 2022. "Unbundling the relationship between economic shocks and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 8, pages 184-204, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Guilherme Amorim & Diogo Britto & Alexandre Fonseca & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "Job Loss, Unemployment Insurance and Health: Evidence from Brazil," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22192, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Corrado Giulietti & Brendon McConnell, 2020. "Kicking You When You're Already Down: The Multipronged Impact of Austerity on Crime," Papers 2012.08133, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    13. Susan Athey & Lisa K. Simon & Oskar N. Skans & Johan Vikstrom & Yaroslav Yakymovych, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets," Papers 2307.06684, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    14. Andrea Bassanini & Eve Caroli & Kevin Geay & Antoine Reberioux, 2024. "Heavy is the crown: CEOs’ social interactions and layoff decisions," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(5), pages 1253-1270.
    15. Stefano Cellini & Livia Menezes & Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner, 2022. "Maternal Displacements during Pregnancy and the Health of Newborns," Discussion Papers 22-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    16. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Adriana Paolantonio, 2024. "Climate Immobility Traps: A Household-Level Test," Papers 2403.09470, arXiv.org.
    17. Paolo Pinotti, 0. "The Credibility Revolution in the Empirical Analysis of Crime," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 0, pages 1-14.
    18. Pinotti, Paolo, 2020. "The credibility revolution in the empirical analysis of crime," CEPR Discussion Papers 14850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Marcelo Castro & Cesar Tirso, 2023. "The impacts of the age of majority on the exposure to violent crimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 983-1023, February.
    20. Paolo Pinotti, 2020. "The Credibility Revolution in the Empirical Analysis of Crime," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(2), pages 207-220, July.
    21. Leah Platt Boustan & Jiwon Choi & David Clingingsmith, 2024. "The Political Fallout of Machine Tool Automation in the Mid-20th Century United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic History of American Inequality: New Evidence and Perspectives, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Figueiredo, Ana & Marie, Olivier & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2024. "Job Security and Liquid Wealth," IZA Discussion Papers 16744, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Francesco Filippucci, 2022. "What Do NEETs Need? The Effect of Combining Activation Policies and Cash Transfers," PSE Working Papers halshs-03524083, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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