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On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan

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  • Muhammad SHAHBAZ

Abstract

The economy can be affected, either positively or negatively, by the process of devaluation of local currency. An improvement in trade balance is considered as one of the most significant and beneficial impacts of devaluation. However, higher inflation would lead to expensive imports that offset the growth of economy resulting from an increase in exports. This reduces the effectiveness of devaluation to reduce the trade deficit. The benefits of devaluation are restricted where inflation severely hits the economy. Moreover, nominal devaluation of exchange rate improves the trade balance when it leads to real devaluation of exchange rate. The present study is also an attempt to explore the long run and short run relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rates. The study is one of the a unique attempt in the case of Pakistan as devaluation has always been a politically sensitive issue. The order of integration has been found through Ng-Perron (2001), whereas ARDL and DOLS are employed for long run correlations. The findings clearly indicate that nominal devaluation not only leads to real devaluation in long run but also in short run. This scenario provides directions for policy-makers to take into consideration both positive and negative implications of devaluation in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2009. "On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:9:y2009:i:1_5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam & Muhammad Sabihuddin, Butt, 2011. "Devaluation and income inequality: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Dec 2011.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    3. Muhammad Nasir & Wasim Malik, 2011. "Structural Decomposition of Exchange Rate Shocks in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation using SVAR Methodology," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 124-138, September.
    4. repec:ris:badest:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2015. "A Note on Nominal and Real Devaluation in Laos," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 236-243, April.
    6. repec:bpj:glecon:v:13:y:2017:i:1:p:8:n:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2013. "Devaluation and Income Inequality Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(4), pages 48-58, April.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Iqbal Javed & Muzammil Muhammad, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-8, June.
    12. Islam, Faridul & Tahir , Mohammad Iqbal & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Income Terms of Trade and Trade Balance: The Long Run Evidence from Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(2), pages 109-122, June.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    F10; C20; C22;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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