Income terms of trade and trade balance: the long run evidence from Bangladesh
The paper implements the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to test the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect in the context of Bangladesh. The HLM effect predicts that a rise in terms of trade from an exogenous shock to a small open economy will lead to an improvement in that country’s trade balance. Our findings confirm a long run relationship. The Granger causality test reports unidirectional causality from income terms of trade to trade balance. Results are consistent with the theoretical predictions.
|Date of creation:||07 Apr 2012|
|Date of revision:||24 Apr 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2009. "On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
- Shigeyuki HAMORI, 2008. "Trade Balances and the Terms of Trade in G-7 Countries: Penal Cointegration Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 13-22.
- Otto, G., 2003. "Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 155-184, April.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Sheffrin, S.M. & Woo, W.T., 1989.
"Present Value Tests Of An Intertemporal Model Of The Current Account,"
61, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
- Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and terms of trade? The case of Malaysia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 307-311.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Alse, Janardhanan, 1995. "Is there any long-run relation between the terms of trade and trade balance?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 199-205, April.
- Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
- Abu Wahid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2009. "Does Nominal Devaluation Precede Real Devaluation? The Case of The Philippines," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 47-61, May.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982.
"Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
- Bazoumana Ouattara, 2006. "Aid, debt and fiscal policies in Senegal," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 1105-1122.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
- Eugene Kouassi & Bernard Decaluwe & Dale Colyer, 1998. "Is it real? The long-run relation between terms of trade and current account deficits: the Ivory evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(7), pages 437-440.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.