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Co-integrating relationship between terms of trade and current account deficit: the Australian evidence

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  • Asraul Hoque

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between terms of trade and current account deficit (CAD) in Australia using the co-integration approach. The period covered is 1965:I to 1992:IV. Assuming that different exchange rate regimes will have different impacts on the relationship, the study considers three different exchange rate regimes for the period covered. The empirical results indicate that terms of trade along with domestic income and foreign income has a significant long-term relationship with the trade balance during the fixed exchange rate regime (1965:I to 1974:III), but not during the flexible exchange rate period. In other words, terms of trade did not have significant impact on Australia's current account deficit in the flexible exchange rate regime under study.

Suggested Citation

  • Asraul Hoque, 1995. "Co-integrating relationship between terms of trade and current account deficit: the Australian evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 130-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:2:y:1995:i:4:p:130-133
    DOI: 10.1080/758529820
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Jeremy Smith & David W.R. Gruen, 1989. "A Random Walk Around the $A: Expectations, Risk, Interest Rates and Consequences for External Imbalance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8906, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    1. Eugene Kouassi & Bernard Decaluwe & Crispin Kapombe & Dale Colyer, 1999. "Temporal causality and the dynamic interactions between terms of trade and current account deficits in co-integrated VAR processes: further evidence from Ivorian time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 89-96.
    2. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    3. Giovanna Tagliabue, 2005. "Co-integrating relationship between terms of trade, money and current account: the Italian evidence," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 15(3-4), pages 99-111.
    4. Islam, Faridul & Tahir , Mohammad Iqbal & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Income Terms of Trade and Trade Balance: The Long Run Evidence from Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(2), pages 109-122, June.

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