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Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria

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  • Adesoye A. Bolaji

    () (Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria.)

  • Adelowokan Oluwaseyi Adedayo

    () (Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria.)

  • Alimi Y. Olorunfemi

    () (Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos state, Nigeria.)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of non-oil export demand on economic performance in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1975 and 2013. The study tests for the unit root and co-integration to determine the time series properties of our variables before using Vector Error Correction (VEC) model for both short- and long- run estimates and possible policy inferences. The results show that non-oil export has a positive impact on economic growth suggesting that policies formulated towards improving the export of non-oil commodities in Nigeria will directly boost output growth of other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, services etc. The findings also reveal a uni-causal link from export to growth in Nigeria, thereby, supporting the export-led growth hypothesis. The policy implication of this finding is that failure on the part of policy makers to increase non-oil exports will directly hurt the economy of Nigeria. This is also consistent with the findings in the short-run. It was also found that capital and labor have direct and significant impact on output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Adesoye A. Bolaji & Adelowokan Oluwaseyi Adedayo & Alimi Y. Olorunfemi, 2018. "Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 295-314, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:eut:journl:v:22:y:2018:i:1:p:295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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