Exports, imports and growth
The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hwang, Jason & Rodrik, Dani, 2005.
"What You Export Matters,"
Working Paper Series
rwp05-063, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
- Mattesini, Fabrizio & Quintieri, Beniamino, 1997. "Italy and the Great Depression: An Analysis of the Italian Economy, 1929-1936," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 265-294, July.
- Thornton, John, 1997. "Exports and economic growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 235-240, August.
- Riezman, R. & Whiteman, C. & Summers, P.M., 1995.
"The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth,"
95-16, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Riezman, Raymond G & Whiteman, Charles H & Summers, Peter M, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 77-110.
- Raymond Riezman & Charles Whiteman & Peter M. Summers, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 9602002, EconWPA.
- Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521661508 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1982. "The Growth of the Utilities Industries in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 601-627, September.
- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2003. "Notes on the Rate of Industrial Growth in Italy, 1861 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(03), pages 695-735, September.
- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861 1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 273-312, December.
- Bardini, Carlo, 1997. "Without Coal in the Age of Steam: A Factor-Endowment Explanation of the Italian Industrial Lag Before World War I," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 633-653, September.
- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1988. "International resource flows and construction movements in the atlantic economy: the kuznets cycle in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(03), pages 605-637, September.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Federico Giovanni, 2005. "Seta, agricoltura e sviluppo economico in Italia," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 123-154.
- Richard E. Baldwin, 1992. "On the Growth Effects of Import Competition," NBER Working Papers 4045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Federico, Giovanni & Tena, Antonio, 1991. "On the accuracy of foreign trade statistics (1909-1935): Morgenstern revisited," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-273, July.
- Fenoaltea Stefano, 2000. "The Growth of Italy's Wool Industry, 1861-1913: A Statistical Reconstruction," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 119-146.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Michèle Merger, 1989. "L'Industrie italienne de locomotives, reflet d'une industrialisation tardive et difficile (1850-1914)," Histoire, économie & société, Programme National Persée, vol. 8(3), pages 335-370.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Fohlin, Caroline, 1998.
"Fiduciariand Firm Liquidity Constraints: The Italian Experience with German-Style Universal Banking,"
Explorations in Economic History,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-107, January.
- Fohlin, Caroline, 1996. "Fiduciari and Firm Liquidity Constraints: The Italian Experience with German-Style Universal Banking," Working Papers 948, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Federico Giovanni, 2003. "Le nuove stime della produzione agricola italiana, 1860-1910: primi risultati e implicazioni," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 359-382.
- Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992.
"The power of cointegration tests,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
- Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniela Federici & Daniela Marconi, 2001. "On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 323-340.
- Lancaster, Kelvin, 1980. "Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-175, May.
- Fenoaltea Stefano, 2002. "Production and Consumption in Post-Unification Italy: New Evidence, New Conjectures," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 251-300.
- Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521666923 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fohlin, Caroline, 1999. "Capital mobilisation and utilisation in latecomer economies: Germany and Italy compared," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 139-174, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:49:y:2012:i:2:p:241-254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.