Capital Inflows, Current Accounts and Investment Cycle in Italy: 1861-1913
By relying on a new dataset, this paper presents an econometric strategy to test the Fenoaltea’s thesis with regard to both the genesis of current account fluctuations and of the investment cycle. We perform a Granger causality test that shows that the persistent current account deficits in the years from unification from WW1 were generated by variations in capital inflows, as pointed by Fenoaltea, and not by the dynamics of the GDP, as claimed by the Bonelli-Cafagna model. Finally, this paper supports the Fenoaltea’s thesis that these capital inflows prompted a general investment cycle which included both construction and industrial investments
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- Zamagni, Vera, 1997.
"The Economic History of Italy 1860-1990,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198292890.
- Zamagni, Vera, 1993. "The Economic History of Italy 1860-1990," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287735.
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- Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1988. "International resource flows and construction movements in the atlantic economy: the kuznets cycle in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(03), pages 605-637, September.
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- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli, 1984. "Italy in the Gold Standard Period, 1861-1914," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 405-454 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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