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Capital Inflows, Current Accounts and Investment Cycle in Italy: 1861-1913

Listed author(s):
  • Barbara Pistoresi

    ()

  • Alberto Rinaldi

    ()

By relying on a new dataset, this paper presents an econometric strategy to test the Fenoaltea’s thesis with regard to both the genesis of current account fluctuations and of the investment cycle. We perform a Granger causality test that shows that the persistent current account deficits in the years from unification from WW1 were generated by variations in capital inflows, as pointed by Fenoaltea, and not by the dynamics of the GDP, as claimed by the Bonelli-Cafagna model. Finally, this paper supports the Fenoaltea’s thesis that these capital inflows prompted a general investment cycle which included both construction and industrial investments

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File URL: http://merlino.unimo.it/campusone/web_dep/wpdemb/0032.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi" in its series Department of Economics (DEMB) with number 0032.

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Length: pages 23
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Handle: RePEc:mod:dembwp:0032
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.economia.unimore.it/

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  1. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1988. "International resource flows and construction movements in the atlantic economy: the kuznets cycle in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(03), pages 605-637, September.
  2. Zamagni, Vera, 1997. "The Economic History of Italy 1860-1990," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292890.
  3. Bolchini Piero & Ciocca Pierluigi & de Cecco Marcello & Federico Giovanni & Tattara Giuseppe & Toniolo Gianni & Zamagni Vera, 2006. "A proposito di Stefano Fenoaltea, L'economia italiana dall'Unità alla Grande Guerra (Bari-Roma, 2006). Interventi di:," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 331-331.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
  7. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  8. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2013. "External constraint and economic growth in Italy: 1861-2000," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0011, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  9. Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli, 1984. "Italy in the Gold Standard Period, 1861-1914," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 405-454 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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