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Capital Inflows, Current Accounts and Investment Cycle in Italy: 1861-1913

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  • Barbara Pistoresi

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  • Alberto Rinaldi

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Abstract

By relying on a new dataset, this paper presents an econometric strategy to test the Fenoaltea’s thesis with regard to both the genesis of current account fluctuations and of the investment cycle. We perform a Granger causality test that shows that the persistent current account deficits in the years from unification from WW1 were generated by variations in capital inflows, as pointed by Fenoaltea, and not by the dynamics of the GDP, as claimed by the Bonelli-Cafagna model. Finally, this paper supports the Fenoaltea’s thesis that these capital inflows prompted a general investment cycle which included both construction and industrial investments

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Current Accounts and Investment Cycle in Italy: 1861-1913," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0032, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:dembwp:0032
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    File URL: http://merlino.unimo.it/campusone/web_dep/wpdemb/0032.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zamagni, Vera, 1997. "The Economic History of Italy 1860-1990," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292890.
    2. Piero Bolchini & Pierluigi Ciocca & Marcello de Cecco & Giovanni Federico & Giuseppe Tattara & Gianni Toniolo & Vera Zamagni, 2006. "A proposito di Stefano Fenoaltea, L'economia italiana dall'Unità alla Grande Guerra (Bari-Roma, 2006). Interventi di:," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 331-331.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    5. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2013. "External constraint and economic growth in Italy: 1861-2000," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0011, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1988. "International resource flows and construction movements in the atlantic economy: the kuznets cycle in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(03), pages 605-637, September.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli, 1984. "Italy in the Gold Standard Period, 1861-1914," NBER Chapters,in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 405-454 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Di Martino & Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2016. "International financial flows, domestic banks, and the economic development of the periphery: Italy, 1861-1913," Department of Economics 0104, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital imports; current accounts; investment cycle; Italy; integration; cointegration and Granger causation analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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