IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/77404.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Economic Growth in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Bakari, Sayef

Abstract

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Germany has been widely debated given to the high economic status compared to most countries in the world. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in Germany. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of World Bank for the periods between 1985 and 2015, was tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationary test, co integration analysis of Vector Auto Regression Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, unit root tests show that economic growth, exports and imports series become stationary when first difference is considered. Also, it was determined by using co integration analysis of Vector Auto Regression Model that there is no relationship between the three variables in Germany. On the other hand, and according to the Granger-Causality tests, we defined that there is unidirectional causality between exports and imports and between exports and economic growth. In addition, we found that there is a strong evidence of bidirectional causality from import to economic growth. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, are seen as the source of economic growth in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Trade and Economic Growth in Germany," MPRA Paper 77404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77404/1/MPRA_paper_77404.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:ausecp:v:38:y:1999:i:2:p:164-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Parteka, Aleksandra & Tamberi, Massimo, 2013. "Product diversification, relative specialisation and economic development: Import–export analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 121-135.
    3. Rubina Vohra, 2001. "Export and economic growth: Further time series evidence from less-developed countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(3), pages 345-350, August.
    4. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0666, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
    6. Parteka, Aleksandra & Tamberi, Massimo, 2013. "Product diversification, relative specialisation and economic development: Import–export analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 121-135.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    10. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    11. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "Impacts of Agricultural Exports and CO2 Emissions on Economic Growth: New Evidence from High Income Countries," MPRA Paper 121697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "Impacts of Agricultural Exports and CO2 Emissions on Economic Growth: New Evidence from High Income Countries," MPRA Paper 121888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bakari, Sayef, 2022. "The Nexus between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: Do Exports matter?," MPRA Paper 114394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ben Yedder, Nadia & El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2023. "Boosting Economic Growth in Angola: Unveiling the Dynamics of Domestic Investments and Exports," MPRA Paper 119480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Low Income Countries," MPRA Paper 121631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nadia Ben Yedder & Malek El Weriemmi & Sayef Bakari, 2023. "The Impact of Domestic Investment and Trade on Economic Growth in North Africa Countries: New Evidence from Panel CS-ARDL Model," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(42), pages 22-41, November.
    7. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek & Mabrouki, Mohamed, 2022. "The Impact of Digitalization and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Richest Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 113816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "The Impact of CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from North African Countries," MPRA Paper 122152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bakari, Sayef, 2022. "The Impact of Natural resources, CO2 Emission, Energy use, Domestic Investment, Innovation, Trade and Digitalization on Economic growth: Evidence from 52 African Countries," MPRA Paper 114323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies," MPRA Paper 52460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    3. Adesoye A. Bolaji & Adelowokan Oluwaseyi Adedayo & Alimi Y. Olorunfemi, 2018. "Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 295-314, Winter.
    4. Bakari, Sayef & MABROUKI, Mohamed, 2016. "La Relation entre la Croissance Economique, les Exportations et les Importations en Maroc : Une Validation Empirique Basée sur des Techniques de Modélisation VAR et de Causalité au Sens de Granger ," MPRA Paper 76440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225.
    6. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki, 2017. "Impact Of Exports And Imports On Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panama," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(1), pages 67-79, March.
    7. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Peter Wamalwa & Maureen Were, 2019. "Is export-led growth a mirage?: The case of Kenya," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    11. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Asma Elmakki, 2018. "The Nexus Between Industrial Exports And Economic Growth In Tunisia: Empirical Analysis," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(2), pages 31-53, December.
    12. Bakari, Sayef & Tiba, Sofien, 2019. "Long run and Short run Macroeconomics Determinants of Economic Growth in the USA: Cointegration and VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 96618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. repec:icf:icfjmo:v:09:y:2011:i:1:p:6-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. P. K. Mishra, 2012. "The Dynamics of the Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 57-79, June.
    16. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    17. Akbay O. S., 2011. "Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 28, pages 108-114, May.
    18. El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco," MPRA Paper 65431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Irena Lacka & Janusz Myszczyszyn & Sylwia Golab & Beata Bedzik & Blazej Supron, 2020. "Correlation between the Level of Economic Growth and Foreign Trade: The Case of the V4 Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 657-678.
    20. Nguyen, Dao Thi Hong & Sun, Sizhong & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "A long-run and short-run analysis of the macroeconomic interrelationships in Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-25.
    21. Lee, Chin, 2013. "The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Malaysian Post Recession Growth," MPRA Paper 44808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export; import; economic growth; Germany; Cointegration and Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.