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Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco

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  • El Alaoui, Aicha

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between export, import and economic growth using annual time series data for the Moroccan economy over the period 1980-2013. The cointegration technique has been employed to see the long run equilibrium relationship among variables. For this end, Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) has been adopted to see both short and long run causality among the variables. The cointegration results confirm the existence of the long-run relationship among these variables. For the short-run causality, the findings suggest (i) bidirectional causality between economic growth and import, (ii) unidirectional causality that run from export to import, and (iii) no-directional causality between economic growth and export.

Suggested Citation

  • El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco," MPRA Paper 65431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Exports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Gabon," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 40-57, June.
    2. Bakari, Sayef & Khalfallah, Sirine & Zidi, Ahmed, 2021. "The Determinants of Agricultural Exports: Empirical Validation for the Case of Tunisia," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 9(3), October.
    3. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    4. Awe, O. O. & Akinlana, D. M. & Yaya, O. S. & Aromolaran, O., 2018. "Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(2).
    5. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Are Domestic Investments in Spain a Source of Economic Growth?," MPRA Paper 105526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bakari, Sayef & Saaidia, Fatma, 2017. "Assessment of Commerce Potency on Economic Growth in Italy: Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 76480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Olufemi Adewale Aluko Adefemi A. Obalade, 2020. "Import-economic growth nexus in selected African countries: An application of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 117-128, November.
    8. Lengnoo, Hayatee & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Granger-causality between real exchange rate and economic growth: evidence from Thailand," MPRA Paper 111692, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Export; Import; Granger Causality; Cointegration; VECM; Morocco;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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