IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2019-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is export-led growth a mirage?: The case of Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Wamalwa
  • Maureen Were

Abstract

The role of exports in promoting economic growth has been widely acknowledged. This paper analyses the link between exporting and growth performance in Kenya using time series data. Despite trade liberalization and export promotion policies pursued over time, Kenya's export growth has been sluggish and its contribution to economic growth is still limited. Notwithstanding diversification efforts, exports are still strongly geared towards primary agricultural goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Wamalwa & Maureen Were, 2019. "Is export-led growth a mirage?: The case of Kenya," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp-2019-115.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dierk Herzer, 2006. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 319-324.
    4. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    6. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    7. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    8. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    9. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    11. Krueger, Anne O, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 1-22, March.
    12. Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia, 2016. "Technology spillovers: Kenya and Malaysia compared," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 536-569, June.
    13. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0666, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    15. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    16. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    17. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    18. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Export composition and the impact of exports on economic growth of developing economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 67-71, September.
    19. Reinikka, Ritva, 1996. "The Credibility Problem in Trade Liberalisation: Empirical Evidence form Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 444-468, October.
    20. Musila, Jacob W. & Yiheyis, Zelealem, 2015. "The impact of trade openness on growth: The case of Kenya," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 342-354.
    21. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    22. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "New evidence on export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 801-803.
    23. Adam, Christopher & Collier, Paul & Ndung'u, Njuguna (ed.), 2010. "Kenya: Policies for Prosperity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199602377.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    25. Assefa Admassie, 2002. "Explaining the High Incidence of Child Labour in Sub–Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-275.
    26. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    2. Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2009. "Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach," MPRA Paper 13417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fugarolas, Guadalupe & Mañalich, Isis & Matesanz, David, 2007. "Are Exports Causing Growth? Evidence On International Trade Expansion In Cuba, 1960-2004," MPRA Paper 6323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    5. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    7. Jani Bekő, 2003. "Causality between exports and economic growth: empirical estimates for slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 169-186.
    8. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    9. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2013. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 781-797.
    10. Abo-Zaid Salem M, 2011. "The Trade-Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 63-93, February.
    11. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    12. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    13. Paul Lau, Sau-Him, 1999. "I(0) In, integration and cointegration out:: Time series properties of endogenous growth models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-24, November.
    14. Mirajul Haq & Muhammad Luqman, 2014. "The contribution of international trade to economic growth through human capital accumulation: Evidence from nine Asian countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Verma, R. & Wilson, E.J., 2005. "Savings, Investment, Foreign Inflows and Economic Growth of the Indian Economy 1950-2001," Economics Working Papers wp05-23, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    17. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Causality between exports and economic growth in South Africa: evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 163-181, April-Jun.
    18. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
    19. De La Torre,Augusto & Ize,Alain, 2015. "Should Latin America save more to grow faster ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7386, The World Bank.
    20. María Jesús Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2010. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China's Growth?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 34-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; export-led growth; Import; import substitution; Kenya;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Siméon Rapin). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.