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Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

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  • Barbara Pistoresi

    ()

  • Alberto Rinaldi

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0633
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    File URL: http://www.dep.unimore.it/materiali_discussione/0633.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Massimo Baldini & Teresio Poggio, 2012. "Housing Policy Towards the Rental Sector in Italy: A Distributive Assessment," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 563-581.
    2. Marina Murat & Barbara Pistoresi, 2009. "Emigrant and immigrant networks in FDI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1261-1264.
    3. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
    4. Giuseppe Marotta, 1997. "Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1619-1629.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Emanuele Felice & Giovanni Vecchi, 2012. "Italy’s Modern Economic Growth, 1861-2011," Department of Economics University of Siena 663, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage, revised Aug 2020.
    4. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 405-442, September.
    5. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies," MPRA Paper 52460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    7. Emanuele Felice & Giovanni Vecchi, 2013. "Italy’s Growth and Decline, 1861-2011," CEIS Research Paper 293, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Oct 2013.
    8. Adesoye A. Bolaji & Adelowokan Oluwaseyi Adedayo & Alimi Y. Olorunfemi, 2018. "Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 295-314, Winter.
    9. Makiko Hino & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2014. "Catching up and falling behind in technological progress: the experience of the textile and chemical industries in Italy between 1904 and 1937," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    11. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225, December.
    12. Barbara Pistoresi, 2013. "Italy's current account sustainability:a long run perspective, 1861-2000," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    13. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2013. "External constraint and economic growth in Italy: 1861-2000," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0011, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. You-How Go & Lin-Sea Lau & Kwang-Jing Yii & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2020. "Does energy efficiency affect economic growth? Evidence from aggregate and disaggregate levels," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(6), pages 983-1006, September.
    15. Zavou Argyro & Anastasiou Athanasios & Liargovas Panagiotis & Dermatis Zacharias & Komninos Dimitrios, 2018. "Trade Flows and Economic Growth Between Countries – Members of the European Union," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 3(7), pages 78-85, July.
    16. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Trade and Economic Growth in Germany," MPRA Paper 77404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Wamalwa & Maureen Were, 2019. "Is export-led growth a mirage?: The case of Kenya," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-115, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export led growth hypothesis; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger – causality;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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