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Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004

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  • Barbara Pistoresi

    ()

  • Alberto Rinaldi

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationship between real export and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  • Handle: RePEc:mod:depeco:0633
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    File URL: http://www.dep.unimore.it/materiali_discussione/0633.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marina Murat & Barbara Pistoresi, 2009. "Emigrant and immigrant networks in FDI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1261-1264.
    2. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
    3. Giuseppe Marotta, 1997. "Does trade credit redistribution thwart monetary policy? Evidence from Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1619-1629.
    4. Massimo Baldini & Teresio Poggio, 2010. "Housing policy toward the rental sector in Italy: a distributive assessment," Department of Economics 0632, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Felice, Emanuele & Vecchi, Giovanni, 2015. "Italy’s Modern Economic Growth, 1861–2011," Enterprise & Society, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 225-248, June.
    3. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies," MPRA Paper 52460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Emanuele Felice & Giovanni Vecchi, 2013. "Italy’s Growth and Decline, 1861-2011," CEIS Research Paper 293, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Oct 2013.
    5. Makiko Hino & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2014. "Catching up and falling behind in technological progress: the experience of the textile and chemical industries in Italy between 1904 and 1937," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    6. Jacint Balaguer & Tatiana Florica & Jordi Ripollés, 2015. "Foreign trade and economic growth in Spain (1900–2012): the role of energy imports," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(3), pages 359-375, December.
    7. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225, December.
    8. Barbara Pistoresi, 2013. "Italy's current account sustainability:a long run perspective, 1861-2000," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    9. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2013. "External constraint and economic growth in Italy: 1861-2000," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0011, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Trade and Economic Growth in Germany," MPRA Paper 77404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export led growth hypothesis; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; Granger – causality;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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