IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1836.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)

Author

Listed:
  • Jacopo Timini

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Between its Unification and WWI, Italy’s changing export composition echoed its economic transformation. In this paper I decompose Italian export growth in its margins, and then analyse the determinants of Italian exports and product market entry (and exit). To do so, I use two different databases (aggregate and product-level bilateral trade data) and methodologies (gravity and logit models). Besides confirming some well-known empirical and historical facts for the Italian case (gravity variables hold; trade follows a Heckscher-Olhin pattern), the regression results offer a new perspective on two distinctive features of its history: trade policy and emigration. These two factors are positively associated with Italian exports and product market entry. These findings also have additional implications for the role of emigration on the course of the Italian economy: accounting for the trade channel, its overall effect may be larger than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage, revised Aug 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1836
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/18/Files/dt1836e.pdf
    File Function: Udpated version, August 2020
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loïc Charles & Guillaume Daudin, 2015. "Eighteenth-Century International Trade Statistics. Sources and Methods," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 7-36.
    2. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Marco Grazzi & Chiara Tomasi, 2010. "Intermediaries in International Trade: direct versus indirect modes of export," LEM Papers Series 2010/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Meissner, Christopher M. & Tang, John P., 2018. "Upstart Industrialization and Exports: Evidence from Japan, 1880–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1068-1102, December.
    5. Kuntz-Ficker, Sandra & Tena-Junguito, Antonio, 2018. "Mexico’S Foreign Trade In A Turbulent Era (1821-1870): A Reconstruction," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 149-182, March.
    6. Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Exporting, productivity and agglomeration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 919-939, July.
    7. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    8. Giordano Mion & Luca David Opromolla & Alessandro Sforza, 2016. "The Diffusion of Knowledge via Managers' Mobility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1458, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Cong S. Pham & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2016. "The role of endowments, technology and size in international trade: new evidence from product-level data," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 913-937, October.
    10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    11. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    12. Toniolo, Gianni (ed.), 2013. "The Oxford Handbook of the Italian Economy Since Unification," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199936694.
    13. Markus Lampe, 2011. "Explaining nineteenth‐century bilateralism: economic and political determinants of the Cobden–Chevalier network," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(2), pages 644-668, May.
    14. Koenig, Pamina & Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra, 2010. "Local export spillovers in France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 622-641, May.
    15. Lampe, Markus, 2009. "Effects of Bilateralism and the MFN Clause on International Trade: Evidence for the Cobden-Chevalier Network, 1860-1875," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1012-1040, December.
    16. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Nuvolari, Alessandro, 2015. "Technical Change, Non-Tariff Barriers, and the Development of the Italian Locomotive Industry, 1850–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 860-888, September.
    17. O’Rourke, Kevin H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2002. "When did globalisation begin?," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 23-50, April.
    18. Ahn, JaeBin & Khandelwal, Amit K. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2011. "The role of intermediaries in facilitating trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 73-85, May.
    19. James E. Rauch & Joel Watson, 2004. "Network Intermediaries in International Trade," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 69-93, March.
    20. Concepción Betrán & Michael Huberman, 2016. "International competition in the first wave of globalization: new evidence on the margins of trade," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 69(1), pages 258-287, February.
    21. Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, 2018. "German Export Survival in the First Globalisation," CEH Discussion Papers 04, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    22. Huberman, Michael & Meissner, Christopher M. & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2017. "Technology and Geography in the Second Industrial Revolution: New Evidence from the Margins of Trade," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 39-89, March.
    23. Stéphane Becuwe & Bertrand Blancheton & Christopher M. Meissner, 2015. "Stages of Diversification: France, 1836-1938," NBER Working Papers 21777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Díaz, Rafael à ngel Ledezma, 2018. "Reconstrucciã“N De Series De Valor Del Comercio Exterior De Honduras. 1880–1930," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 117-148, March.
    25. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    26. Felice, Emanuele & Carreras, Albert, 2012. "When did modernization begin? Italy's industrial growth reconsidered in light of new value-added series, 1911–1951," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 443-460.
    27. Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia, 2017. "Export Spillovers: Comparative Evidence From Kenya and Malaysia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 26(1), pages 24-51.
    28. Stefano Fenoaltea, 2010. "The reconstruction of historical national accounts: the case of Italy," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 63(252), pages 77-96.
    29. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861–1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 273-312, December.
    30. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2010. "Exports,growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0633, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    31. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    32. Pham, Cong S., 2008. "Product specialization in international trade: A further investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 214-218, May.
    33. Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2015. "What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 993-1029, December.
    34. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2010. "Trade costs in the first wave of globalization," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 127-141, April.
    35. Rayes, Agustina, 2018. "The Other Side Of Argentine Foreign Trade: Sources For The Study Of Imports, 1880-1913," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 27-51, March.
    36. Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2011. "Exports, imports and growth. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004," Department of Economics 0666, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    37. Filippo Cesarano & Giulio Cifarelli & Gianni Toniolo, 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy: The Italian Lira, 1883–1911," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 253-275, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Fornaro & Federica Romei, 2019. "The Paradox of Global Thrift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3745-3779, November.
    2. Jef Boeckx & Maarten Dossche & Alessandro Galesi & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2019. "Do SVARs with sign restrictions not identify unconventional monetary policy shocks?," Working Papers 1926, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    3. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    4. Christian Castro & Jorge E. Galán, 2019. "Drivers of Productivity in the Spanish Banking Sector: Recent Evidence," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 115-141, June.
    5. Gergely Ganics & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2018. "Confidence intervals for bias and size distortion in IV and local projections — IV models," Working Papers 1841, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    6. Jacopo Timini, 2019. "Staying dry on Spanish wine: the rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement (Updated May 2020)," Working Papers 1932, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage, revised May 2020.
    7. Sergio Mayordomo & Omar Rachedi, 2019. "The China syndrome affects banks: the credit supply channel of foreign import competition (Updated February 2020)," Working Papers 1908, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage, revised Feb 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    2. Anders Akerman, 2018. "A theory on the role of wholesalers in international trade based on economies of scope," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 156-185, February.
    3. Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & Engberg, Erik & Halvarsson, Daniel & Kokko, Ari & Tingvall, Patrik, 2019. "Wholesale firms: A catalyst for Swedish exports?," Ratio Working Papers 328, The Ratio Institute.
    4. Jacopo Timini, 2017. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the latin monetary union," Working Papers 1739, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "Rethinking the take-off: the role of services in the new economic history of Italy (1861–1951)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 405-442, September.
    6. Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 96856, February.
    7. Andrew B. Bernard & Marco Grazzi & Chiara Tomasi, 2010. "Intermediaries in International Trade: direct versus indirect modes of export," LEM Papers Series 2010/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Fernandes, Ana P. & Tang, Heiwai, 2014. "Learning to export from neighbors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-84.
    9. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    10. Francesco Serti & Chiara Tomasi, 2014. "Export and import market-specific characteristics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1467-1496, December.
    11. Patricia Sourdin & Richard Pomfret, 2012. "Trade Facilitation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14596.
    12. Melitz, Marc J. & Redding, Stephen J., 2014. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-54, Elsevier.
    13. Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Out of the Border Labyrinth: An Assessment of Trade Facilitation Initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7994, February.
    14. Carballo, Jerónimo & Schaur, Georg & Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Posts as Trade Facilitators," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7681, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Stefano Fenoaltea, 2020. "The fruits of disaggregation: The engineering industry, tariff protection, and the industrial investment cycle in Italy, 1861-1913," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(292), pages 77-110.
    16. Jacks, David S. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-201, March.
    17. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2012. "Using Observable Trade Data to Measure Bilateral Trade Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 12/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    18. Békés, Gábor & Muraközy, Balázs, 2012. "Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 232-246.
    19. Stéphane Becuwe & Bertrand Blancheton & Christopher M. Meissner, 2018. "The French (Trade) Revolution of 1860: Intra-Industry Trade and Smooth Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 25173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Liu, Dan & Meissner, Christopher M., 2015. "Market potential and the rise of US productivity leadership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 72-87.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italian exports; Market entry; First globalization; gravity models; logit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.