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What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy

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  • Federico, Giovanni
  • Vasta, Michelangelo

Abstract

The impact of protection on economic growth has enjoyed a revival in recent times, with the publication of a number of comparative quantitative papers. They all share a common weakness: they measure protection as the ratio of custom revenues to import value, which biases results if demand for imports is not perfectly inelastic. In this article, we show that the measure of protection matters. We estimate the James Anderson and Peter Neary (2005) Trade Restrictiveness Index for Italy from unification to the Great Depression. We suggest a different interpretation of some key moments of Italian trade policy and we show that the aggregate welfare losses were small in the long run and mostly related to protection on sugar in the 1880s and 1890s. We document that using different measures of protection affects results of the causal relation between trade policy on economic growth in Italy and in the United States. Accordingly, we argue that a systematic re-estimating of protection in the economic history of trade policy is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2015. "What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 993-1029, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:75:y:2015:i:04:p:993-1029_00
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    1. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    2. Allen, Robert C., 2011. "Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199596652, Decembrie.
    3. Anderson, James E, 1995. "Tariff-Index Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 156-173, June.
    4. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2005. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of International Trade Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012200, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the Latin Monetary Union [Bilateral treaties and the most-favored-nation clause: the myth of trade liberalization in the nineteenth cent," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(3), pages 322-348.
    2. Ian Keay, 2019. "Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1464-1496, November.
    3. Absell, Christopher David & Incerpi, Andrea, 2022. "Opening the black box of distance: evidence from Italy, 1862-1938," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 36226, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    4. Rowena Gray & Gaia Narciso & Gaspare Tortorici, 2017. "Globalization, Agricultural Markets and Mass Migration," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1713, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    5. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Leonardo Ridolfi & Michelangelo Vasta, 2021. "The race between the snail and the tortoise: skill premium and early industrialization in Italy (1861–1913)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 15(1), pages 1-42, January.
    6. Patrick Alexander & Ian Keay, 2017. "The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy," Staff Working Papers 17-18, Bank of Canada.
    7. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    8. Bräuer, Richard & Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian & Kersting, Felix, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Labor Markets and Elections in the First Globalization," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 285, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.
    10. Alexander, Patrick D. & Keay, Ian, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of Canada’s national policy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Carlo Ciccarelli & Alberto Dalmazzo & Daniela Vuri, 2021. "Home Sweet Home: the Effect of Sugar Protectionism on Emigration in Italy, 1876‐1913," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 925-957, August.
    12. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España, revised Aug 2020.
    13. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Magazzino, Cosimo & Marcucci, Edoardo, 2021. "Early development of Italian railways and industrial growth: A regional analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Andrea Colli & Michelangelo Vasta, 2015. "The enduring logic: the history of business groups in Italy," Department of Economics University of Siena 723, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Timini, Jacopo, 2020. "Staying dry on Spanish wine: The rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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