IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/econjl/v134y2023i657p135-164..html

Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Migration in the First Globalisation

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Bräuer
  • Felix Kersting

Abstract

This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture—the grain invasion from the Americas—in Prussia during the first globalisation (1870–913). We show that this shock led to a decline in the employment rate and overall income. However, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation, which we explain by a strong migration response. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine them with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian and United States trade data to isolate exogenous variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Bräuer & Felix Kersting, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Migration in the First Globalisation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 135-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:134:y:2023:i:657:p:135-164.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uead068
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tena-Junguito, Antonio & Lampe, Markus & Fernandes, Felipe Tâmega, 2012. "How Much Trade Liberalization Was There in the World Before and After Cobden-Chevalier?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 708-740, August.
    2. Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2015. "What Do We Really Know about Protection before the Great Depression: Evidence from Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 993-1029, December.
    3. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    4. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    5. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Stephen J. Redding, 2022. "Trade, Structural Transformation, and Development: Evidence from Argentina 1869–1914," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1249-1318.
    6. Sullivan, Paul, 2010. "Empirical evidence on occupation and industry specific human capital," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 567-580, June.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    8. Wolf-Fabian Hungerland & Christoph Altmeppen, 2021. "What is a product anyway? Applying the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) to historical data," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 65-79, April.
    9. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2016. "How Large Are the Gains from Economic Integration? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture, 1880-1997," NBER Working Papers 22946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Adjusting to Globalization in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 263-302.
    11. Brown, John C. & Neumeier, Gerhard, 2001. "Job tenure and labour market dynamics during high industrialization: the case of Germany before World War I," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 189-217, August.
    12. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Fritzsche, 2024. "De-industrialization, local joblessness and the male-female employment gap," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0040, Berlin School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bräuer, Richard & Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian & Kersting, Felix, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Labor Markets and Elections in the First Globalization," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 285, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Timo Walter, 2023. "German labor market reform and the rise of Eastern Europe: dissecting their effects on employment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 351-387, May.
    4. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    5. Boddin, Dominik & Kroeger, Thilo, 2021. "Structural change revisited: The rise of manufacturing jobs in the service sector," Discussion Papers 38/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2024. "Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Biswajit Banerjee & Risto Herrala, 2024. "Testing the impact of liquidation speed on leverage using Indian data," Working Papers 113, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    8. Luca Citino & Andrea Linarello, 2022. "The impact of Chinese import competition on Italian manufacturing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 702-731, August.
    9. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Matthieu Lequien & Marc J. Melitz & Thomas Zuber, 2024. "Opposing Firm-Level Responses to the China Shock: Output Competition versus Input Supply," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 249-269, May.
    10. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    11. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    12. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J. Redding & Yanos Zylberberg, 2024. "The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion," Working Papers 337, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Suedekum, Jens, 2016. "Adjusting to globalization - Evidence from worker-establishment matches in Germany," DICE Discussion Papers 205, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    14. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "Globalization and Inequality in Latin America," IZA Discussion Papers 16363, IZA Network @ LISER.
    15. Hauptmann, Andreas & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg & Schwanebeck, Benjamin, 2024. "Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Chagas, Lucas Squarize & Sant’Anna, Vinicios P., 2024. "International trade and wage inequality: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    18. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Sascha Sardadvar & Christian Reiner, 2021. "Austrian regions in the age of globalisation: Trade exposure, urban dynamics and structural change," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 603-643, June.
    20. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:134:y:2023:i:657:p:135-164.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/resssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.