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What Do We Really Know About Protection Before The Great Depression: Evidence From Italy

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  • Federico, Giovanni
  • Vasta, Michelangelo

Abstract

The impact of protection on economic growth is one of the traditional issues in economic history, which has enjoyed a revival in recent times, with the publication of a number of comparative quantitative papers. They all share a common weakness: they measure protection with the ratio of custom revenues to imports, which is bound to bias results if imports are not perfectly inelastic. In this paper, we show that the measure of protection matters, by estimating the Trade Restrictiveness Index (TRI) by Anderson and Neary (2005) for Italy from its unification to the Great Depression. We put forward a different interpretation of some key moments of Italian trade policy and we show that the aggregate welfare losses were small in the long run and mostly related to the outlandish protection on sugar in the 1880s and 1890s. We also show that different measures of protection affect considerably the results of econometric tests on the causal relation between trade policy on economic growth in Italy and in the United States. Accordingly, we argue that the economic history of trade policy needs a systematic re-estimating of protection.

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  • Federico, Giovanni & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2015. "What Do We Really Know About Protection Before The Great Depression: Evidence From Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10522
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    1. Allen, Robert C., 2011. "Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199596652.
    2. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2005. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of International Trade Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012200, April.
    3. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    4. Anderson, James E, 1995. "Tariff-Index Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 156-173, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "Currency unions and heterogeneous trade effects: the case of the Latin Monetary Union [Bilateral treaties and the most-favored-nation clause: the myth of trade liberalization in the nineteenth cent," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(3), pages 322-348.
    2. Giovanni Federico & Paul Sharp & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach," Working Papers 0118, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    3. Bräuer, Richard & Hungerland, Wolf-Fabian & Kersting, Felix, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Labor Markets and Elections in the First Globalization," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 285, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Pim de Zwart & Markus Lampe & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The last free traders? Interwar trade policy in the Netherlands and Netherlands East Indies," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(3), pages 1057-1085, August.
    5. Jacopo Timini, 2018. "The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Updated August 2020)," Working Papers 1836, Banco de España, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Andrea Colli & Michelangelo Vasta, 2015. "The enduring logic: the history of business groups in Italy," Department of Economics University of Siena 723, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. Ian Keay, 2019. "Protection for maturing industries: Evidence from Canadian trade patterns and trade policy, 1870–1913," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1464-1496, November.
    8. Rowena Gray & Gaia Narciso & Gaspare Tortorici, 2017. "Globalization, Agricultural Markets and Mass Migration," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1713, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    9. Alexander, Patrick D. & Keay, Ian, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of Canada’s national policy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-15.
    10. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.
    11. Richard Bräuer & Felix Kersting, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Migration in the First Globalisation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 135-164.
    12. Absell, Christopher David & Incerpi, Andrea, 2022. "Opening the black box of distance: evidence from Italy, 1862-1938," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 36226, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    13. Patrick Alexander & Ian Keay, 2017. "The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy," Staff Working Papers 17-18, Bank of Canada.
    14. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Leonardo Ridolfi & Michelangelo Vasta, 2021. "The race between the snail and the tortoise: skill premium and early industrialization in Italy (1861–1913)," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 15(1), pages 1-42, January.
    15. Carlo Ciccarelli & Alberto Dalmazzo & Daniela Vuri, 2021. "Home Sweet Home: the Effect of Sugar Protectionism on Emigration in Italy, 1876‐1913," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 925-957, August.
    16. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Magazzino, Cosimo & Marcucci, Edoardo, 2021. "Early development of Italian railways and industrial growth: A regional analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Timini, Jacopo, 2020. "Staying dry on Spanish wine: The rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2017. "A tale of two globalizations: gains from trade and openness 1800–2010," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(3), pages 601-626, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italian economic growth; Trade policy; Trade restrictiveness index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-

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