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Arming in the Global Economy: The Importance of Trade with Enemies and Friends

Author

Listed:
  • Garfinkel, Michelle

    () (University of California, Irvine)

  • Syropoulos, Constantinos

    () (School of Economics Drexel University LeBow College of Business)

  • Yotov, Yoto

    () (School of Economics Drexel University LeBow College of Business)

Abstract

We analyze how trade openness matters for interstate conflict over productive resources. Our analysis features a terms-of-trade channel that makes security policies trade-regime dependent. Specifically, trade between two adversaries reduces each one's incentive to arm given the opponent's arming. If these countries have a sufficiently similar mix of initial resource endowments, greater trade openness brings with it a reduction in resources diverted to conflict and thus wasted, as well as the familiar gains from trade. Although a move to trade can otherwise induce greater arming by one of them and thus need not be welfare improving for both, aggregate arming falls. By contrast, when the two adversaries do not trade with each other but instead trade with a third (friendly) country, a move from autarky to trade intensifies conflict between the two adversaries, inducing greater arming. With data from the years surrounding the end of the Cold War, we exploit the contrasting implications of trade costs between enemies versus trade costs between friends to provide some evidence that is consistent with the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Garfinkel, Michelle & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto, 2019. "Arming in the Global Economy: The Importance of Trade with Enemies and Friends," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-6, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2019_006
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seitz, Michael & Tarasov, Alexander & Zakharenko, Roman, 2015. "Trade costs, conflicts, and defense spending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 305-318.
    2. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2001. "The WTO as a Mechanism for Securing Market Access Property Rights: Implications for Global Labor and Environmental Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 69-88, Summer.
    3. Roberto Bonfatti & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2018. "Growth, Import Dependence, and War," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(614), pages 2222-2257, September.
    4. repec:aea:jeclit:v:55:y:2017:i:3:p:1084-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anbarci, Nejat & Skaperdas, Stergios & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 2002. "Comparing Bargaining Solutions in the Shadow of Conflict: How Norms against Threats Can Have Real Effects," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto & Zylkin, Thomas, 2013. "On the Trade-diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2013-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, revised 15 Sep 2014.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    8. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2005. "Globalization and Domestic Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 1510, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:24:y:2018:i:1:p:16:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 2015. "Trade and insecure resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 98-114.
    11. Garfinkel Michelle R. & Syropoulos Constantinos, 2018. "Rules for Dividing a Disputed Resource in the Context of the Classical Liberal Argument for Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2019. "On Trade and the Stability of (Armed) Peace," Working Papers 181910, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    13. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 2008. "Globalization and domestic conflict," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 296-308, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2019. "On Trade and the Stability of (Armed) Peace," Working Papers 181910, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    resource insecurity; interstate disputes; conflict; arming; trade openness; comparative advantage;

    JEL classification:

    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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