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Interstate Conflict and International Trade

Author

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  • Michelle R. Garfinkel
  • Constantinos Syropoulos

Abstract

We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of war (or peace) as an equilibrium outcome. We also discuss how restrictive trade policies may interact with national security concerns and what they imply for welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle R. Garfinkel & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2025. "Interstate Conflict and International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 11801, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11801
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    2. Seitz, Michael & Tarasov, Alexander & Zakharenko, Roman, 2015. "Trade costs, conflicts, and defense spending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 305-318.
    3. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 379-414, July.
    4. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Arming in the global economy: The importance of trade with enemies and friends," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2025. "Trade Interdependence, Arming and the Choice Between War and Peace," CESifo Working Paper Series 11802, CESifo.
    6. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Zylkin, Thomas, 2022. "Prudence versus predation and the gains from trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gains from trade; national security; arming; war and peace.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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