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Growth, Import Dependence and War

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  • Roberto Bonfatti
  • Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

Abstract

Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot credibly commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper develops a theoretical model of the relationship between trade and war which can help to explain both these observations. Dependence on strategic imports can lead follower nations to launch pre-emptive wars when they are potentially subject to blockade.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Bonfatti & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2014. "Growth, Import Dependence and War," NBER Working Papers 20326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20326
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    Cited by:

    1. O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2019. "Economic History and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 356-382, June.
    2. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Arming in the global economy: The importance of trade with enemies and friends," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Alejandro Ayuso‐Díaz & Antonio Tena‐Junguito, 2020. "Trade in the shadow of power: Japanese industrial exports in the interwar years," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 815-843, August.
    4. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2018. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period and Great Recession Compared," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 418-439, September.
    5. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Zylkin, Thomas, 2022. "Prudence versus predation and the gains from trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    6. Martin C. McGuire, 2020. "Trade and the predatory state: Ricardian exchange with armed competition for resources—a diagrammatic exposition," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(3), pages 459-494, March.
    7. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2017. "Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared," NBER Working Papers 23825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chițu, 2021. "Mars or Mercury redux: The geopolitics of bilateral trade agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 21-44, January.
    9. Ben Li & Penglong Zhang, 2016. "International Geopolitics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 909, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2017.
    10. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2022. "Globalization," Working Papers 20220075, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Jeremy Kettering & Shane Sanders, 2024. "Bargaining in the shadow of conflict: resource division and War’s Inefficiency Puzzle in the commons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 199(1), pages 83-101, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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