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Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on military conflict. Our empirical analysis,based on a large panel data set of 290,040 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence and global trade openness significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the effect of trade openness varies depending on the geographical proximity of countries. The peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflicts. The analysis shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also multilateral trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.

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  • Lee, Jong-Wha & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2009. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 24, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0024
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    Cited by:

    1. Madhur, Srinivasa & Wignaraja, Ganeshan & Darjes, Peter, 2009. "Roads for Asian Integration: Measuring ADB's Contribution to the Asian Highway Network," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 37, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2010. "Beyond market access : the new normal of preferential trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5454, The World Bank.
    3. Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Regional Integration, Fragility and Institution Building: An Analytical Framework Applied to the African Context," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 38, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    4. Verdier, Thierry, 2010. "Ouverture, conflits et capacité étatique : une perspective d’économie politique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(4), pages 415-449, décembre.
    5. Bonginkosi Mamba & André C Jordaan & Matthew Clance, 2015. "Globalisation and Conflicts: A Theoretical Approach," Working Papers 201555, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Madhur, Srinivasa, 2010. "Regulatory Reforms for Improving the Business Environment in Selected Asian Economies - How Monitoring and Comparative Benchmarking Can Provide Incentive for Reform," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 40, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Warwick McKibbin & Waranya Pim Chanthapun, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2009-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Rigg, Robert & Schou-Zibell, Lotte, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Money Markets in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 38, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Globalization; Military conflict; Peace;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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