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Trade and thy neighbor's war

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  • Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed

Abstract

This paper is the first to examine the spillover effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings—based on different measures of regional conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and types of conflict for 145 countries over 1948–2006—reveal a significant negative effect of both intrastate and international conflicts on the bilateral trade of neighboring countries that may not be directly involved in any conflict. The impact increases with conflict duration, and is persistent—on average, it takes bilateral trade 3–5years to recover after the end of a regional conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:105:y:2013:i:c:p:178-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Bluhm, Richard & Gassebner, Martin & Langlotz, Sarah & Schaudt, Paul, 2016. "Fueling conflict? : (De)escalation and bilateral aid," MERIT Working Papers 053, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. D'Souza, Anna, 2014. "Conflict and Trade: Implications for Agriculture and Food Security," Proceedings Issues, 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014, San Diego, California 197200, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Massimiliano Calì & Wissam Harake & Fadi Hassan & Clemens Struck, 2015. "The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21914, The World Bank.
    4. Pham, Cong S. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2017. "An Injury to One Is an Injury to All: Terrorism's Spillover Effects on Bilateral Trade," IZA Discussion Papers 10859, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Conflict; Regional spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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