IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxecpp/v67y2015i1p42-62..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International terrorism as a trade impediment?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Egger
  • Martin Gassebner

Abstract

This article uses monthly data on bilateral trade in conjunction with monthly data on terrorism events and associated fatalities to shed light on the impact of terrorism on trade. Employing a structural model of trade, we provide evidence that, if at all, international terrorism displays effects on bilateral and multilateral trade only in the medium run (more than one and a half years after an attack/incident). The pure short-run impact of international terror on trade appears very small, if not negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Egger & Martin Gassebner, 2015. "International terrorism as a trade impediment?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 42-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:1:p:42-62.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu037
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick T. Brandt & Todd Sandler, 2010. "What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has It Changed? Are We Safer?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 214-236, April.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, "undated". "Valuing Public Goods: The Life Satisfaction Approach," IEW - Working Papers 184, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. José de Sousa & Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighor Hurt?," Working Papers 2010-04, CEPII research center.
    7. Martin Gassebner & Alexander Keck & Robert Teh, 2010. "Shaken, Not Stirred: The Impact of Disasters on International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 351-368, May.
    8. Peter Egger & Georg Wamser, 2013. "Multiple faces of preferential market access: their causes and consequences [Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 143-187.
    9. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    10. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
    11. Bagwell,Kyle W. & Mavroidis,Petros C. (ed.), 2011. "Preferential Trade Agreements," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107000339, October.
    12. repec:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:3:p:331-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2008. "International trade, security and transnational terrorism: Theory and a survey of empirics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-194, June.
    14. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    15. Alan B. Krueger, 2007. "Introduction to What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism," Introductory Chapters, in: What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism, Princeton University Press.
    16. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    17. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    18. Nitsch, Volker & Schumacher, Dieter, 2004. "Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 423-433, June.
    19. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2009. "The Impact Of Terrorism And Conflicts On Growth In Asia," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 359-383, November.
    20. Powell, Robert, 2007. "Defending against Terrorist Attacks with Limited Resources," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 527-541, August.
    21. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
    22. Bruno Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2009. "The life satisfaction approach to valuing public goods: The case of terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 317-345, March.
    23. Todd Sandler & Kevin Siqueira, 2006. "Global terrorism: deterrence versus pre‐emption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1370-1387, November.
    24. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    25. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    26. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    27. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352, August.
    28. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    29. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    30. José de Sousa & Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2009. "Trade and the Spillovers of Transnational Terrorism," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 453-461, December.
    31. Enders,Walter & Sandler,Todd, 2012. "The Political Economy of Terrorism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521181006, October.
    32. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
    33. repec:bla:kyklos:v:45:y:1992:i:4:p:531-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Siqueira, Kevin & Sandler, Todd, 2007. "Terrorist backlash, terrorism mitigation, and policy delegation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(9), pages 1800-1815, September.
    35. Blomberg, S. Brock & Broussard, Nzinga H. & Hess, Gregory D., 2011. "New wine in old wineskins? Growth, terrorism and the resource curse in sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 50-63.
    36. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. De Sousa, José & Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "Terror networks and trade: Does the neighbor hurt?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 27-56.
    2. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2017. "Impact of Terrorism on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As): Prevalence, Frequency and Intensity," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 79-106, February.
    3. Ronald B. Davies & Zuzanna Studnicka, 2022. "Tariff Evasion, the Trade Gap, and Structural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 10151, CESifo.
    4. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2018. "Trade and terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 656-670, September.
    5. Kshetri, Nir, 2017. "The evolution of the internet of things industry and market in China: An interplay of institutions, demands and supply," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 49-67.
    6. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    7. Foubert, Killian & Ruyssen, Ilse, 2024. "Global migration and the role of terrorist attacks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 507-530.
    8. Tam NguyenHuu & Deniz Karaman Orsal, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and financial stress in emerging economies," Working Papers 2022.09, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Volker Nitsch & Isabelle Rabaud, 2019. "Under Attack: Terrorism and International Trade in France, 2014-16," Working Papers hal-02411649, HAL.
    10. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Devashish Mitra & Cong S. Pham, 2017. "The Effects of Terror on International Air Passenger Transport: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2017-2, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Pham, Cong S. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2017. "An Injury to One Is an Injury to All: Terrorism's Spillover Effects on Bilateral Trade," IZA Discussion Papers 10859, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Hristos Doucouliagos & Cong S. Pham, 2021. "Effects of neighboring nation terrorism on imports," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 144-167, July.
    13. Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Günther G. Schulze, 2018. "Who has terror angst? Perceptions of the effects of terror on the world economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 29-33, January.
    14. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2016. "Terrorism, Trade and Welfare: Some Paradoxes and a Policy Conundrum," Working Papers 2016-2, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Pritee Sharma & Salla Nithyanth Kumar, 0. "The global governance of water, energy, and food nexus: allocation and access for competing demands," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    16. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2022. "Does terrorism affect greenfield investment? A structural gravity approach," ThE Papers 22/06, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    17. Stacy Julius & Nnanna P. Azu & Maimuna Y. Muhammad, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Terrorism in Trade Development in the SADC Region: A Gravity Model Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(10), pages 1147-1159, October.
    18. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2017. "Terrorism, Trade, and Welfare," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 295-306.
    19. Abeliansky, Ana L. & Hilbert, Martin, 2017. "Digital technology and international trade: Is it the quantity of subscriptions or the quality of data speed that matters?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 35-48.
    20. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt, 2020. "The effect of migration on terror: Made at home or imported from abroad?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1703-1744, November.
    21. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2020. "Terms-of-trade and counterterrorism externalities," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 293-318.
    22. Noman Ahmad & Alam Khan & Ihtisham ul Haq & Muhammad Hasnain Khalid & Seemab Ahmad, 2024. "The Impact of Terrorism on International Trade: A Panel Study for SAARC Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 671-676.
    23. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2016. "Trade and Terrorism: A Disaggregated Approach," Working Papers 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    24. Pritee Sharma & Salla Nithyanth Kumar, 2020. "The global governance of water, energy, and food nexus: allocation and access for competing demands," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 377-391, June.
    25. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2014. "The effects of terrorism on trade: a factor supply approach," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 229-241.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2016. "Trade and Terrorism: A Disaggregated Approach," Working Papers 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    4. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working papers of CATT hal-01885149, HAL.
    5. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2018. "Trade and terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 656-670, September.
    6. Sultan Mehmood, 2014. "Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 509-534, October.
    7. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2020. "Shock and awe? Fiscal consequences of terrorism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 723-748, February.
    8. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2023. "The Trade-Offs of Counterterrorism Policies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(3), pages 177-197, July.
    9. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    10. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    11. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2017. "Impact of Terrorism on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As): Prevalence, Frequency and Intensity," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 79-106, February.
    13. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler & Donggyu Sul, "undated". "Reevaluating Terrorism and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Analysis and Cross-Sectional Dependence," Economics Working Papers 02-03/2013, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    14. Bassil Charbel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Consequences of War and Terrorism in Lebanon," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 415-429, December.
    15. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    16. Adelaja, Adesoji O., 2016. "Agriculture, Inclusive Growth And National Stability:," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 242359, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    18. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Terrorismus und internationaler Handel: Probleme und Ergebnisse empirischer Untersuchungen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 41-50.
    19. Zahoor Ul Haq & Zia Ullah & Javed Iqbal, 2018. "Terrorist Incidents and Trade," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(2), pages 55-70, June.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:1:p:42-62.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.